Can the Miami Dolphins keep their playoff hopes alive? Will the Houston Texans look rejuvenated coming out of their bye week? Can Mike McDaniel finally beat an above-average team?
We'll answer these questions and more in our betting preview for this Sunday's Dolphins vs. Texans matchup. Let's dive into the specifics.
Most online sportsbooks opened this line at Houston -2.5 on the look-ahead line. Even after the Dolphins' overtime win over the Jets, sharp money still showed up on the Texans to drive this line to Houston -3.
There hasn't been much interest in the total so far. The number opened at 47 at most sports betting apps and that's where it still sits at most shops. However, there are a couple of 47.5s out there if you want to play the Under.
Miami has been through the fire as team this season, as Tua Tagovailoa went down early on with another concussion. That's the main reason they started the year at 2-6. However, the Fish have won 4 of their last 5 outings to run their record to 6-7.
You have to admire the resiliency of Tagovailoa and this Miami squad. They are still very much in the thick of things for a Wild Card berth and they overcame a lot of adversity to get back the Jets in OT last Sunday. That said, they'll need a stellar performance in Week 15 to get by a tough Texans team on the road.
Miami's offensive numbers look worse than what they really are because of all the time that Tagovailoa missed. However, the Dolphins defense has been pretty solid all year long. Miami ranks 4th in third-down defense and 6th in red zone defense.
Houston finally got some rest last week and to say it was much needed would be a gross understatement. The Texans played 13 straight games without a week off, which is brutal in today's NFL world. I'm expecting a maximum effort out of DeMeco Ryans' squad in this one.
CJ Stroud's performance has dipped a little bit this season, but he's still putting up some decent numbers. The former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 3,117 yards and 15 TDs in 2024. Stroud should continue to improve on those numbers now that Nico Collins is finally close to 100% healthy.
I'm a big fan of this Texans defense because they don't have any glaring weaknesses. They rank 5th in yards per play allowed and 3rd in sack rate. The secondary is also very good with Calen Bullock and Derek Stingley Jr. combining for 7 interceptions.
Jump on this bad boy before it hits -3 everywhere in the market. I made this line Houston -4.5 because I'm just not completely sold on this Miami team. The Fish usually have trouble when they step up in class and this is definitely one of those spots.
Miami's defense will probably keep this game close for a while, but Stroud will be too tough on his home field coming off the bye. Miami has a good run defense, but I think Joe Mixon could also give them plenty of problems. Let's lay the small number with Houston!
Prediction: Texans 27 - Dolphins 20