NFL: The Degenerate likes Indy, Seattle and lots of points

INDIANAPOLIS +1½ at Houston, Over/Under 48½
Pick: Indianapolis and the Over

It’s difficult not to see this game unfolding like the first two times these teams
met this season, both of which were decided by three points. Both have won in the
other’s stadium, and I see that trend continuing here, for a few reasons. First, the
Colts’ defense, while obscured by the attention given to Andrew Luck,has actually
been more efficient than Houston’s more-celebrated unit, giving up 15 ppg over their
last seven games compared to the Texans’ 19 ppg. Second, the Colts have given up the
fewest sacks in the NFL this season, though Watt and Clowney each had two in
Houston’s win in Week 4. The Texans have given up the most, obviously a product of
Deshaun Watson’s running tendencies but a significant factor nonetheless. DeAndre
Hopkins may be the best player on this (or any other) field, but I have more faith in
Luck being able to find his receivers and bring his team back if they are down late.
Despite the defensive numbers, I also like the over.

SEATTLE +2 at Dallas, Over/Under 43½
Pick: Seattle and the Over

A difficult one to call, but the lean here is to Seahawks, who are on an 8-2-1 run
ATS including 4-1 on the road. Seattle’s defense has gotten healthier and,while it
doesn’t figure to hold Prescott and Elliott to 13 points as in the first meeting, it
should do enough to eke one out here. A key stat is Seahawks’+15 turnover
differential, the best in the NFL. Russell Wilson is playing the best ball of his
career and has the playoff experience to prevail. If the Seahawks can slow down
Elliott enough to put the game in Prescott’s hands - which I believe they can - it
should be enough. The over/under started at 41 or41½ and has been pushed to 43½. I still think the over is a good play.