Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, sports betting family. I hope all of you are enjoying this beautiful time of the year with friends and family. Our college football bowl season has started off red hot, as we're currently 5-1.
In this betting preview, we'll dive into the ins and outs of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl on Saturday, December 27. It'll be interesting to see how Virginia handles an SEC team like Missouri.
Good luck and enjoy the game! I've got a best bet on this game below that'll hopefully build your bankroll. Let's get into the details.
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Online sportsbooks opened this line at Missouri -7 back when bowl game lines were released. A ton of sharp money has come in on Virginia, so much so that the line is now sitting at Missouri -4 at the time of this writing.
As for the game total, there's been a huge appetite for the Under in the market so far. The line opened at 50.5, and most shops are now offering 44.5. As always, be sure to shop around for the best price before pulling the trigger on any bet.
The Cavs suffered a horrific loss in the ACC Title Game to Duke that kept them out of the College Football Playoff. Can they get up off the mat here for a less-than-exciting bowl game? They have tons of seniors, so I don't think they'll lie down.
QB Chandler Morris is currently in a dispute with the NCAA on his eligibility for next season, but most folks are expecting him to play. He's a big reason why the Cavs ranked 11th in 3rd-down conversion rate this season. Morris loves to hand the ball off to RB J'Mari Taylor, who ran for over 1,000 yards and scored 15 total TDs.
Virginia's defense has been stout all year long, as they rank 22nd in yards per play allowed and 20th in yards per rush allowed. Daniel Rickert leads the team with 6.5 sacks, so the Mizzou O-line better have a plan for slowing him down in this one.
Missouri started off the season 5-0 before losing a heartbreaker to Alabama at home. That loss took a lot out of them, as they finished just 3-3 down the stretch to finish up at 8-4. That being said, I'm expecting a max effort from Eli Drinkwitz's bunch in this one.
If the Tigers can get a W in the Gator Bowl, it will be their 30th win in three seasons. That's quite an accomplishment and one that Coach Drink is very aware of. To sum things up, there should be no shortage of motivation from Mizzou in this spot.
Ahmad Hardy gets all the hype, but the strength of this Tigers team is its defense. Missouri ranks 15th in yards per rush allowed and 3rd in sack rate. Damon Wilson leads the squad with 9 sacks.
UVA vs MIZ: 7:30 PM ET on December 27
This line opened with Missouri as a 7-point favorite before some early money gobbled up Virginia, getting the full TD. I don't agree with the line move, as I made this line Mizzou -7.5. Yes, I know that the Tigers will be starting backup QB Matt Zollers, but he's actually shown some promise as a freshman.
I really don't think the drop-off from Beau Pribula to Zollers is all that severe, especially since All World RB Ahmad Hardy is expected to play. The dynamic sophomore has his sights set on breaking Mizzou's single season rushing record. Sure, UVA has a solid run defense, but they've yet to play a back of Hardy's caliber. It wouldn't surprise me if Coach Drink gives Hardy 30 carries in this bowl game.
On the flip side, this Mizzou defense will be the best UVA has seen all year. Even if Chandler Morris plays for the Cavs, he could be in for a rude awakening. Let's lay the small number with the Tigers. Good luck, and thanks for reading!