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Let's break down Friday afternoon's MAC vs. Big Ten matchup in Detroit at Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions! A Big10 team to beat a MAC team by ten seems favorable on paper, but a deeper dive into the matchup shows why the Chippewas may be well-positioned to stay within the double-digit number.
CMU’s defense ranks 50th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 22.7 points per game, a unit that looks built to slow down an already slow Northwestern offense. The Wildcats rank 104th in scoring offense, just 22.5 points per game, and 111th in passing offense, which displays their lack of explosiveness on offense to generate double-digit separation.
Central Michigan also excels in situational defense that we talk about all the time. They rank 13th nationally in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score on just 73.2% of trips into the red-zone. This could be critical at keeping this game close, turning touchdowns into field goals or zero points is what can keep underdogs alive in these spots.
Central Michigan’s offense is not explosive, but it is good enough on the ground and should be able to limit possessions, preventing this from turning into a blowout.
The Chippewas average 169.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 56th in the country. They average 42 carries on the ground per game while also completing 67% of their limited pass attempts. If they can find success moving the chains, they can grind this game out and keep Northwestern’s offense off the field.
Another key factor is that Northwestern has shown this season, though against better competition, that they struggle getting to the QB. Ranking 99th in QB hits and 111th in sacks, this plays into one of Central Michigan’s strengths on offense, protecting the QB and thus, the ball.
The Chippewas rank 26th nationally in turnovers on offense, 32nd at QB hits allowed, and 41st in sacks allowed, all top 50. Central Michigan does not need to light up the scoreboard; they need to protect the ball, sustain drives, and trade punches.
On paper, this matchup looks to be a grind-it-out slugfest. Neither offense operates at a high tempo, and both sit outside the top 85 in yards per play.
If we dig a little deeper, a couple of key metrics lead me to believe Central Michigan has enough to keep this close. While grinding out 4 yards per rush, when they do pass the ball, they average 8.2 yards per pass and 12.2 yards per completion. That is more than enough to find the chunk explosives to keep them in the game and find a backdoor cover if necessary.
Teams that have the better rushing attack, control tempo, and control time of possession often find success in these bowl matchups. Central Michigan comes into this game at nearly 100%, and with the short travel after Christmas, this dog could do more than just cover the ten. This is good down to +10.
Best Bet:
2% | Central Michigan +12.5 (-124, ProphetX)