Happy Monday, sports betting family. As it usually does, the season is going by way too rapidly, but thankfully, there are lots of fun matchups left out there for us to dive into. It's hard to believe that we only have three weeks left in the regular season.
I've found some nice edges on Friday night's Clemson vs Louisville game, which kicks off at 7:30 Eastern Time on ESPN. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a sensational battle in the Bluegrass State. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Clemson -5.5 on the look-ahead line back in the summer months. Surprisingly, the current number is now Louisville -3.5 at most shops, which isn't all that shocking since Clemson hasn't lived up to all of the preseason expectations.
As for the game total, there's been a huge hunger for the Under so far. The line opened at 60.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now dealing 51.5. There aren't any true outliers in the market as of Monday morning, but that should change as we get closer to kickoff.
Just a few months ago, Clemson was being pegged as a national title contender, and QB Cade Klubnik was one of the favorites to win the Heisman. However, things didn't go as planned. The Tigers come into this game with a 4-5 record, which most experts didn't see coming.
Klubnik has dealt with plenty of criticism, but the veteran signal caller has still thrown for 2136 yards and 14 TDs this season. He's also found the end zone three times on the ground. Clemson's O-line has done a good job of keeping Klubnik clean, as the Tigers rank 29th in sack rate allowed.
Clemson's defense continues to be a strength of this team. The Tigers rank 26th in yards per rush allowed, so even though Louisville's running game is dangerous, they may have a hard time doing much damage in this one.
Jeff Brohm has laid some eggs as a big favorite in the past, and he and the Cards did so once again last Saturday. Louisville lost outright as 18.5-point favorites at home against Cal. The Golden Bears rolled up 427 yards of offense to win in overtime in Week 11.
QB Miller Moss has been erratic at times for the Ville, but he still has a big-time arm and the uncanny ability to stretch defenses. The former USC star has thrown for 2132 yards and 11 TDs. However, Moss's 7 INTs have seemed to come at the worst of times for the Cards.
Louisville's defense has been better than most expected this year. They rank 17th in yards per play allowed and 11th in yards per pass allowed. Look for the Cards to have a somewhat easy time of shutting down the Clemson running game.
Clemson at LVille: 7:30 ET on Friday 11/14
How about an early ACC winner for Friday night? I know it sounds crazy, but Clemson has shown a lot of improvement over the last few weeks. Dabo Swinney looks to have rallied the troops, and the Tigers seemed focused on at least making a bowl game this year.
My power ratings make Clemson a two-point favorite in this matchup against Louisville, which is coming off a rough loss in overtime to Cal last week. The Tigers were a 5.5-point favorite on the lookahead line back in the summer months before the bottom dropped out of their season. The Cards may be at home, but Clemson has played a tough schedule (37th vs 62nd, according to our math buddy Jeff Sagarin).
Louisville moves the ball well, but the Cards rank just 114th in red zone scoring percentage. That could come back to bite them in this very tough matchup against a Clemson squad that looks to have suddenly found its footing. I'm playing the Tigers plus 3.5 and sprinkling the moneyline. Good luck, my friends!