Welcome to some more Tuesday Sun Belt action, sports betting family. As it usually does, the year is going by way too fast, but there are lots of fun games left out there for us. I can't believe we're already in Week 10.
I've found some nice edges on tonight's James Madison vs Texas State game, which kicks off at 7:00 Eastern Time on ESPN2. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be an exciting Fun Belt clash on Tuesday. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at James Madison -8.5 on the look-ahead line a few days ago. However, that line was adjusted down to James Madison -7 after some sharp money came in on the home dog. It'll be interesting to see if there's some buyback if the line hits 6.5 before the kick.
As for the game total, there's been a big move toward the Under so far. The line opened at 60.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now dealing 55.5. Most weather forecasts are calling for 35+ mph wind gusts, which is the main reason for such a drastic move downward in the number.
James Madison continues to be one of the top Group of 5 teams in the nation. The Dukes have won five in a row after a tough two-TD loss to Louisville way back in Week 2. JMU hasn't been on the road since an ugly win over Georgia State in Week 6.
Alonza Barnett is the main man of this Dukes offense. He's thrown for 1252 yards, 9 TDs, and just 2 INTs this season. Barnett has also been a force on the ground, as he's found the end zone nine times with his legs.
As good as Barnett has been, the strength of this JMU team is the defense. The Dukes rank 13th in yards per play allowed and 5th in yards per rush allowed. They also have one of the best pass rushes in the land.
GJ Kinne has taken this Texas State program to new heights, but the Bobcats have lost a ton of one-score games this season. They'll have to fight tooth and nail to make a bowl game, so expect a big effort out of this group tonight on national TV.
Texas State could have the edge on special teams in this one. Kicker Tyler Robles has been fantastic this season, as he's hit 10 of his 12 field goal attempts and 29 of his 30 extra point tries. The former USC transfer has also made 2 field goals from over 50 yards.
JMU at TX ST - 7:00 PM EDT on ESPN2 (10/28)
Texas State has not lived up to expectations this year, as they're sitting at just 3-4 and have yet to win a conference game. Meanwhile, James Madison is 6-1 and a perfect 4-0 in the Sun Belt Fun Belt. You know what that means for me and the Mikey's Mashers Crew: It's time to buy low and sell high, baby!
As crazy as it may sound, there's a lot to like about the Bobcats tonight at home. They've played a much tougher schedule than the Dukes (88th vs 128th according to math guru Sagarin). Texas State also ranks 5th in yards per pass and a solid 21st in yards per rush. That type of balance should hopefully keep the stout JMU defense on its heels a bit in this one.
But Mikey Nobs....why are we taking the First Half? Texas State has been a much better team in the first half all season long. The Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in the first half, while James Madison is just 3-4 ATS in the first half. Let's play Texas State and hope that QB Brad Jackson (1761 passing yards, 17 total TDs) continues to be one of the most dominant freshmen in college football. Good luck, sports betting family.