As the 2025 college football season enters its final stretch of conference games, teams are now fighting for conference title berths and possible playoff seeding. With what I like to call a make-or-break week, there are a handful of two-loss teams that simply cannot afford to lose this week!
Three matchups stand out based on motivation, matchup data, and line value: Georgia Tech vs. Syracuse, Iowa State vs. BYU, and LSU vs. Texas A&M. Let's get into them!
Georgia Tech comes into this matchup looking to avenge last season’s loss to Syracuse and avenge the money they cost me in the Duke game last week, as Duke let us all down.
The Yellow Jackets have put together one of the best seasons yet, but still have a lot to prove. Sagarin gives Tech the 48th toughest strength of schedule and Syracuse the 13th, and while that may stick out to some people, this Tech team is looking to make a statement.
With one of the most balanced offenses in the ACC this season, averaging just over 35 points per game, they rank 12th in the country in rushing yards per game and 68th in passing yards. They rank 9th in redzone efficiency, 22nd in third down conversions, and 9th in yards per play. This Syracuse defense will have their hands full.
Syracuse, meanwhile, has struggled with consistency on offense and hasn’t traveled well this year. Their defense allows 30 points per game, which ranks 108th, while ranking 94th, allowing 5.6 yards per play. I don’t see how this Syracuse defense is going to consistently get off the field, and when they do turn it over to their offense, they are being led by a backup QB. Give me the points up to -17.
At first glance, an unranked Iowa State team being favored over a ranked BYU might seem odd, and that's why we love it. BYU has also played in a lot of tight games and is bound to give one away at some point!
Iowa State has played one of the toughest schedules in the Big 12 this season, ranking 38th in the nation, as BYU sits at 55, according to Sagarin. Both teams bring very strong defenses into this game, BYU allowing 16 points and Iowa State allowing 19.
On offense, Iowa State averages 29, while BYU averages 35. Both teams convert 40% of their 3rd downs, and both offenses average under 1 turnover per game. So, what gives in this matchup?
BYU was lucky to win at home last week vs a very good Utah Team. They were outgained 470 to 368, and Utah had two turnovers and 12 penalties. Iowa State averages 163 yards on the ground per game, and BYU just allowed 226 at home. Give me Iowa State to control the game on the ground and squeak out a close game!
This SEC battle carries major implications for LSU and Brian Kelly, and getting points at home is hard to ignore. Despite some ups and downs this season, LSU still has one of the best defenses in the nation, and at home, in a night game, they have enough offense to keep this close and win outright.
Both teams have played a top 20 schedule, with LSU sitting at #7. LSU averages 25 per game while Texas A&M allows 23, and LSU ranks in the top 10 in allowing fewer than 15 points per game.
Texas A&M may be undefeated, but they’ve been pushed to the limit in several close games and now face one of their toughest environments of the season. The Aggies have lost six straight games at LSU, and I think we get #7 Saturday night.
Both teams are fairly equal in numerous categories, giving the slight edge to Texas A&M, but this is just a bad spot. If LSU’s run game gets rolling early, which has been a weakness, it could help Nussmeier settle in. If that happens, we could see LSU cruise to a victory as they ride this physical defensive front.