Welcome to Week 7 of the college football season, sports betting family. As it usually does, the year is going by way too rapidly, but there's plenty of good games left out there for us.
I've found some nice edges on Saturday afternoon's Iowa State vs. Colorado game, which kicks off at 3:30 Eastern Time on ESPN. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be an exciting Big 12 battle in Boulder. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Iowa State -4.5 on the look-ahead line, mainly because of Colorado's poor start to the season. Surprisingly, the current number is now Iowa State -2.5, which is kind of a shock since Colorado is only sitting at 2-4 on the year.
As for the game total, there's been a small move toward the Over so far. The line opened at 52.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is still offering that number. The main outlier is far is ESPN Bet, which is dealing 53.5. It's hard to say which way this total will move from now until kickoff on Saturday afternoon.
Iowa State suffered its first loss of the season last Saturday. The Cyclones dug themselves a big hole against Cincinnati and never recovered. Even still, you have to admire the fight that this group showed, even in a tough road environment.
Rocco Becht got his bell rung in a big way against the Bearcats. The Cyclones' star QB was evaluated for a concussion, but he came back into the game shortly after. The 6'1" junior has thrown for 9 TDs and run for 6 more already this season.
Colorado's defense will have to find a way to slow Becht down if it wants to have a shot at pulling off this upset. I'd expect the Buffs to dial up lots of different blitz packages like stunts to try and make Becht uncomfortable in the pocket.
Things just haven't gone well for Coach Prime and this Colorado team. I think everyone expected a step back after losing Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, but I'm not so sure anyone thought they'd get off to a 2-4 start.
The team still has plenty of talent, but key injuries and untimely turnovers have really held them back. Look for Colorado to try and establish their running game a bit more in this matchup.
The Buffs have gotten some solid production out of sophomore RB Micah Welch, who is averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He'll be hungry to bounce back after a less-than-stellar outing against TCU last week.
I wanted to wait and see if a +4 or +4.5 would come back, but it just moved to +3 at the pro shops like Circa and the big offshores like Bookmaker. I think Iowa State is a bit better than Colorado, but it's tough to win in Boulder at that high altitude. This will also be back-to-back roadies for the Cyclones, so the spot definitely favors the Buffs.
Coach Prime isn't the greatest gameday coach, but he's a master motivator. You just know he'll have his guys fired up at home, especially since they're coming off two straight losses. The worm has got to turn at some point for the Buffs, and I think this could be where it starts.
QB Kaidon Salter has got to start taking better care of the football. He threw 3 picks against TCU last week on the road, but I bet OC Pat Shurmur will scheme up some easier throws for him in this one. Colorado could have some success on the ground, and I love that the Buffs have been better than the Cyclones in both the red zone and on 3rd down. Let's take the points and sprinkle the moneyline. Good luck, my friends!
Prediction: Colorado 27 - Iowa State 24