Welcome to Week 6 of the 2025 season. We are coming off a beautiful 3-0 sweep on last week's article. Let’s do it again! As we are now into conference play, we are going to get a ton of back-and-forth and close battles.
Now we have to dig through the numbers a bit more to find out what really matters. Here are my favorite spots for Saturday, with current trends and matchups to back them up.
Penn State has one of the best defenses in the country, allowing under 12 points per game so far this season. They’ve been especially dominant in first halves, where they have allowed a total of 6 points.
The Nittany Lions’ front seven is generating steady pressure with multiple players and ranks inside the top 50 in both passing and rushing yards allowed. Now that has been against very weak competition outside of the Oregon game, and now they have to travel across the country after a huge letdown spot.
Offensively, Penn State is more comfortable leaning on its run game than airing it out, which keeps the clock moving. UCLA ranks 26th in the country in passing yards allowed, which should also force Penn State's hand a bit. UCLA should also look to establish the run, and I don’t think they will have much success in the passing game either. This leads me to believe we will see a game played mainly on the ground.
Both teams are under this line in the first half in 3 of their 4 games this season. Penn State historically played to the under in Franklin's tenure after a big loss. It'll be a sweat, but if Penn State can keep UCLA under 6, I think a 21-6 or 20-6 score will do.
Texas has shown flashes of explosiveness but hasn’t consistently sustained drives against physical defenses. In their first road game of the season, albeit against the best defense in the country, they scored 7 points. We all know Arch Manning has not looked as advertised, and I suspect we will see his feet early and often in this one.
Florida has played a much tougher schedule and went to Miami, allowing them to score just 26 points. Now they get the home crowd behind them, where they held LSU to 20 and USF to 18.
The Gators are especially tough in the red zone, and I expect them to force field goals instead of touchdowns. On top of that, Florida’s offense hasn’t exactly been pushing the pace. With a lower-paced environment expected, I like both teams to stay under their totals of 24.5 and 19.5. If Florida controls tempo and forces Texas into long fields, hitting 25 points becomes a tough ask, even more so if Texas turns the ball over.
Notre Dame has looked like one of the most physical teams in the nation through the first month of the season, even after losing their first two games against very good teams. Their offensive line dominated Arkansas last week, and we saw their running game break out in a big way.
CJ Carr has also been one of the better FBS quarterbacks through the first month. Notre Dame has a huge home-field advantage here and should dominate on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame traveled to Arkansas last week and beat them by 43 points. I believe they can win by at least 20 at home here.
Boise has played a very easy schedule, ranking 118th, and though it was a tough and humid environment at USF, they could only score 7 points, and Notre Dame has a much better defense here. Can Notre Dame shut out Boise? I believe they need to do something close and keep destroying teams if they want a chance to get back into the playoffs. Opening the season with 2 losses, they must run through everyone else on their schedule. I trust this team and coaching staff to keep the pedal to the metal.
Louisville draws Virginia in a game where the Cardinals’ defense should dictate everything. Virginia is in a terrible spot after going into Florida State and winning that game outright. Virginia’s offense has been spectacular, ranking 8th in college scoring 45 points.
What does Louisville do well? Plays defense, allowing less than 19 points per contest, 37th in the country. With Louisville fueled by their comeback win last week, forcing 5 turnovers, I think they cool off Virginia here in what should be a back-and-forth battle.
Alabama, meanwhile, gets Vanderbilt, and has revenge on its mind. I have been back and forth on the +11 for Vandy or -9 for Alabama all week, and I just cannot decide on a spread. If I had to choose, I do think Alabama has the team and revenge factor to at least cover 9 and win by 10.
I will stick with Alabama ML because they are the better team, Simpson has been running this offense very well, and I do not think they will lose back-to-back seasons to Vanderbilt. Pavia is solid, but he won’t escape this one with a win.