Welcome to Week 6 of the college football season, sports betting friends. As it usually does, the year is going by way too fast, but there's plenty of good action left out there for us.
I've found some nice edges on Saturday afternoon's Virginia vs. Louisville game, which kicks off at 3:30 Eastern Time on ESPN2. I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll.
Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be an exciting ACC showdown in the Bluegrass State. Let's get into it!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Louisville -7.5 on the look-ahead line, mainly because they didn't know what to make of this Virginia squad. Surprisingly, the current number is still Louisville -7.5, even after Virginia pulled off a stunning upset of Florida State last week on ESPN.
As for the game total, there's been a strong move for the Over so far. The line opened at 59.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 62.5. That's quite a jump upward, but it's understandable with these two very potent offenses.
The Cards survived a scare last week on the road against Pitt, as they were down 17-zip before they remembered that it was game day and time to play some football. However, Louisville played a flawless 2nd half to come away with a 34-27 victory over the Panthers.
Louisville QB Miller Moss was a big reason for the Cards' comeback, as he accounted for 4 total touchdowns. Moss was dialing up WR Chris Bell early and often last week, as Bell hauled in 10 receptions for 135 yards and a score.
As nice as Louisville's comeback was, they have to be concerned about their running game, or lack thereof. RB Issac Brown, who is supposed to be a dark horse Heisman candidate, gained just 20 yards on 14 carries. He's a bit banged up, but the Cards are going to need more from him now that they're in the meat of conference play.
You just have to admire the job Tony Elliott has done at Virginia. He's got this offense humming, and bringing in QB Chandler Morris from North Texas was a genius idea. The 6-foot senior has thrown for 1,279 yards and 10 TDs already this season.
UVA's offense is one of the best in the country (5th) at converting third downs. A big reason for their success is that they have four capable running backs who are all capable of breaking off big runs.
Louisville may have to stack the box more than they'd like just to slow down the likes of J'Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee.
Those who've been with me a long time know that I love fading teams after they pull off HUGE upsets. Virginia definitely fits into that category after shocking the world last Friday night against Florida State. Beating a Top 10 team at home in primetime was enormous for the 'Hoos, and I bet they partied pretty hard for several days afterwards.
UVA now has to hit the highway to face a pretty stout Louisville team. The Cards struggled against Pitt last week, but I think Jeff Brohm will find plenty of ways to get his playmakers the ball against a UVA secondary that ranks just 78th in yards per pass allowed.
My pure number on this game was Louisville -8, but I adjusted that up a couple of points because I just don't see Virginia playing lights out two weeks in a row. Let's lay the TD with the Cards. Good luck!
Prediction: Louisville 34 - Virginia 24