Welcome to Week 6 of college football, sports betting family. There's nothing like a sensational Saturday packed with tons of interesting matchups like we have on this weekend's card. I've found some nice edges on Saturday afternoon's Iowa State vs Cincinnati game, which kicks off at Noon Eastern Time on ESPN2.
I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet to hopefully help build your bankroll. Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a fun Big 12 battle!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Iowa State -3.5 on the look-ahead line, mainly because of Cincinnati's early-season loss vs. Nebraska. Surprisingly, there's been a fair amount of large money coming in on the Bearcats. We're now sitting at Cincinnati -1.5 at most online sportsbooks as of Monday afternoon.
As for the game total, there's been quite an appetite for the Under so far. The line opened at 54.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 52.5.
Even still, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see some buyback on the Over before kickoff, especially since both of these offenses have QBs who can push the ball down the field.
Iowa State throttled Arizona last week to the tune of a 39-14 beatdown. Veteran QB Rocco Becht ran for three TDs and threw for 243 yards for the Cyclones, and the team won every single quarter in the scoring department. RB Carson Hansen also found the end zone twice.
The Cyclones also got another big win earlier in the season over in-state rival Iowa, so this team is battle-tested. They have a stingy defense that ranks 29th in yards per pass allowed and 15th in points per game allowed
After a tough Week 1, Bearcats QB Brendan Sorsby has done an excellent job of manning the offense. The 6'3" junior has thrown for 1,043 yards and 10 TDs. He's also found the end zone four times with his legs, so Iowa State will have to consider putting a spy on him at times.
Wisconsin transfer Tawee Walker has been a nice addition to this Cincinnati offense. The 5'8" bowling ball is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and has scored 4 TDs already this year.
As a group, the Bearcats rank 17th in yards per carry (5.4), so the Cyclones may have to stack the box at times to limit them.
Why in the world is No. 14 Iowa State an underdog in this spot against Cincinnati? I'll tell you why...because the oddsmakers know that these two teams are almost equal on paper and that the undefeated Cyclones are going to be bitten by the regression bug.
Cincinnati dropped a tough one in Week 1 to Nebraska, but they've looked much better ever since. They gutted out a tough win over Kansas on the road last week, and I think they match up quite well against Iowa State. The Bearcats rank 10th in yards per play and 1st in red zone scoring percentage.
Iowa State is a solid squad, and we cashed with them last week over Arizona. However, they're more than a bit banged up. Cornerback Jeremiah Cooper got hurt against 'Zona, and both of the Cyclones' kickers were out in that game. There's no word if either will be able to give it a go this weekend.
Lastly, it doesn't hurt that Cincy will be playing with a little revenge in mind, as they were beaten by 17 a year ago by the Cyclones. Let's sell Iowa State at a high and cheer for the Bearcats at home. Good luck, my friends!
Prediction: Cincinnati 28 - Iowa State 24