Welcome to Week 5 of college football, sports betting friends. There's nothing like a sensational Saturday packed with lots of dynamic games like we have on this weekend's card. I've found some nice edges on Saturday afternoon's Indiana vs. Iowa game, which kicks off at 3:30 PM Eastern Time on Peacock.
I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures. Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a fun one to watch!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Indiana -2.5 on the look-ahead line, mainly because of Iowa's lack of offensive prowess. After last week's outstanding performance by the Hoosiers against Illinois, money has poured in on Indiana like crazy. We're now sitting at Indiana -7.5 at most online sportsbooks as of Tuesday morning.
As for the game total, there hasn't been much action on that front. The line opened at 48.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is still offering that same number. Even still, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see some Under money show up before Saturday rolls around, especially since both of these defenses are pretty strong.
Iowa got a big road win on Friday night against Rutgers in a game that lots of experts were expecting them to lose. The Hawkeyes churned out 160 yards on the ground behind RB Kamari Moulton and QB Mark Gronowski. Iowa was down four points in the 4th quarter before scoring two late TDs to earn the W.
The strength of this Iowa team is their big guys up front on both sides of the ball. The Hawkeyes have arguably the best offensive line in the country, and their defensive line is getting more pressure on the QB than they did a season ago. Iowa ranks a respectable 29% in sack rate so far this year.
You have to hand it to Curt Cignetti. He pounds his chest and hypes up his hype to the media, but he has the squad and the coaching ability to back all of it up. Indiana absolutely curb-stomped Illinois last weekend to the tune of a 63-10 blowout.
That huge win is a big reason why Hoosiers QB Fernando Mendoza is now the leader at most sportsbooks in the Heisman race. The Cal transfer has already thrown for 975 yards and 14 TDs this season. His main target has been Omar Cooper Jr., who has already caught 5 TDs.
A scary thing about Indiana is that they should be improved on the defensive side of the ball. The Hoosiers rank 4th so far in 3rd-down defense and 9th in points per game allowed.
As scary as it may be to bet against Indiana right now, it's where the value is, in my opinion. My power ratings say that Indiana should only be a 5-point favorite in this matchup on the road at Kinnick Stadium, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.
Everyone and their brother just saw the Hoosiers play a perfect game against Illinois, and that's why the oddsmakers had to adjust this line 5.5 points up from its opener of Indiana -2.5. Iowa is never a sexy team to watch, but Kirk Ferentz gets the job done with elite defenses and solid running games.
This should be one heck of a game to watch! Do I think Iowa can pull off the outright upset? No, but I think they cover this inflated point spread. Go Hawks!
Prediction: Indiana 24 - Iowa 20