Welcome to Week 5 of college football, sports betting friends. There's nothing like a week packed with lots of dynamic games like we have on this weekend's card. I've found some nice, expected value on Friday night's Florida State vs. Virginia game, which kicks off at 7:00 PM Eastern Time on ESPN.
I've broken down all aspects of this matchup and came up with an early best bet for your wagering pleasures. Good luck and enjoy the action! This should be a fun one to watch!
Online sportsbooks opened this line at Florida State -9.5 on the look-ahead line, mainly because of Virginia's defensive woes against NC State. Some early money on the Cavaliers sent the line down to its current number of Florida State -7.5, which is where we still sit at most shops as of Monday afternoon.
As for the game total, there's been some large money coming in on the Over. The line opened at 51.5, and almost every sportsbook in the US is now offering 58.5. The move upward makes sense because of how potent both of these offenses have looked so far this season.
The Cavaliers looked fantastic at home last week against Stanford. They rolled up the Cardinal to the tune of a 48-20 beatdown. QB Chandler Morris threw for 380 yards and 4 TDs, which gave him an insanely good quarterback rating of 96.2.
Virginia's defense has looked okay at times and very suspect at others. The Hoos gave up 35 points and 416 yards of offense in a loss to NC State a couple of weeks ago on the road.
However, they got one of their best linebackers (Kam Robinson) back from injury a week ago, and he should be a big help in stopping Florida State's excellent rushing attack.
You have to hand it to Mike Norvell. It looked like he was going to be fired last year after going 2-10, but he went to work like a madman in the transfer portal to retool this Seminoles squad. The Gus Malzahn hire turned out to be the ideal fit for this offense.
Tommy Castellanos hasn't been in Tallahassee very long, but he's already the heart and soul of this team. The Boston College transfer was the main reason why FSU pulled off a shocking upset over Alabama in Week 1. Duce Robinson has been Castellanos's favorite target so far (199 rec. yds, 2 TDs).
FSU's defense also looks to be much improved. The Noles rank 18th in yards per play allowed and 13th in yards per rush allowed. However, those two metrics were bolstered by playing Kent State and Texas A&M-Commerce.
I love this home spot on Friday night for the 'Hoos! You can bet your bottom dollar that Scott Stadium will be going bonkers for the Cavs to pull off an upset over a highly ranked Florida State squad. Virginia has the offense to hang with FSU, and I think they'll keep this one close from wire to wire.
On the flip side, the spot for the Noles is brutal. This is their first road game after starting 3-0 at home to start their season. It's also a pretty rough lookahead spot for FSU, as they have in-state rival Miami on deck next week. Tommy Castellanos was rolled up on against Kent State last week and left that game with a lower-body injury. He assured Noles fans that he's fine, but that has to work in UVA's favor that he's a bit banged up.
My power ratings make FSU only a 5-point favorite, but I adjusted that to FSU -3 because of the horrid spot. Let's take the points with the home dog and sprinkle a small amount on the moneyline.
Prediction: Virginia 31 Florida State 28