The first full week of college football brought its usual surprises, with ranked teams pushed to the limit and several unranked programs making statements. Week 2 shifts the focus to real matchups that carry weight for the rest of the season.
Teams now have an initial film to study, coaches can adjust to weaknesses, and bettors gain a clearer picture of where value lies. Three plays in particular stand out on this weekend’s board. Let's get right into them!
Illinois comes into Week 2 as a team that looks prepared for a strong season. They have been a favorite for a lot of “experts” for the season and started their 2025 campaign with a strong 52-3 win over Western Illinois. They showed balance on offense, protecting the football and creating steady drives, while gaining yards on the ground and through the air. Their defensive front also proved disruptive, forcing hurried throws and limiting explosive plays.
Duke, on the other hand, also looked very good in their opener with a 45-17 win over Elon. While the Blue Devils flashed playmaking ability, their protection issues and trouble sustaining drives could rear their head in this matchup against a defense like Illinois. Road games are never simple, as we saw a ton of home teams win in week 1, but Illinois has a clear advantage in efficiency and coaching.
The Illini are built to grind out possessions, shorten the game, and capitalize when opponents make mistakes. Both quarterbacks bring threats to this game. Altmyer and Mensah are both capable of making plays and taking over drives. If the Illini are for real, they will find a way in the second half to pull away. My model has this game close, Illinois by 1, and I'll take it!
Best Bets: Illinois ML
The annual Cy-Hawk game rarely lacks drama, and this year’s edition has all the ingredients for another tense battle. Iowa State won last year's affair on the road by 1, 20-19. Iowa enters with its trademark defense, but questions remain about how much offensive consistency it can produce, especially in this rivalry. We saw the Hawkeyes last season improve in their passing game, and I expect even more improvements in 2025. Iowa still will lean on its defense to flip field position and pound the ground game when the opportunity presents.
Iowa State offers a more balanced attack, with a quarterback who’s shown poise and receivers capable of stretching the field. The Cyclones also benefit from playing at home, where crowd noise can rattle visiting offenses and tilt momentum. Iowa State has had the benefit of playing 2 games, allowing for more team cohesiveness, but it also gives Iowa more game film to study.
Rocco Becht is by far the better quarterback in this matchup, and I expect him to find plays and put together scoring drives against this Iowa defense on the road. While Iowa is not expected to do much this season, Iowa State has aspirations of making the Big 12 championship game and has all the right pieces to make a serious run.
This rivalry is often tight on the spread, so the moneyline is the more secure option. Iowa State has the tools to win outright by leaning on tempo, efficiency, and the home-field advantage that often proves decisive in rivalry matchups. If you want to roll with a spread, my model likes Iowa State by 5, so -2.5 to -3 is an excellent look.
Best Bets: Iowa State ML (-142, FanDuel)
For those looking for a game line parlay, I have just the play for you! Florida -7 paired with Toledo’s moneyline is a fantastic play. Florida has superior depth compared to their Week 2 opponent in South Florida and boasts a physical front that should control both lines of scrimmage. While larger spreads can be risky early in the season, a 7-point number is manageable. My Model has Florida by -15.5, and they should be able to win this game by at least two touchdowns. Florida’s ability to run the ball, create turnovers on defense, and make explosive plays on offense behind DJ Lagway should push them comfortably past that margin.
Toledo rounds out the parlay as a dependable moneyline leg, especially at home, which is a key factor here. The Rockets are traditionally one of the stronger programs in the MAC when playing home games, and their disciplined approach often leads to early-season success. While the Hilltoppers got the best of the Rockets last season, I expect a different script in 2025. According to CFBDepth.com, Toledo is the higher-ranked overall team, with the better offense and defense. Under Jason Candle, in his 10th season, Toledo could make some noise in the MAC.
Toledo was a very popular pick last week to upset an SEC foe in Kentucky last week and it almost pulled off that feat. While Kentucky is not the best on offense, they have had very strong defenses over the past few seasons. With Toledo looking to bounce back vs an opportunistic Western Kentucky team, Tucker Gleason, this senior-led offense should do enough to win this game outright.
Best Bets: Florida -7 + Toledo ML (-134, Bet365)