Two of college football’s top programs outside of the Group of 4 face off when the Boise State Broncos travel south to face the South Florida Bulls on Thursday at 5:30 p.m.
The Broncos have been among the best non-power conference teams over the past two decades. Boise made the CFP Quarterfinals last season, dropping a 31-14 decision to Penn State. It’s the last season the Broncos will compete in the Mountain Athletic Conference as the PAC-12 will welcome them – and several other schools – following this season.
South Florida continues to rebuild after in Alex Golesh’s third year helming the program. He’s led the Bulls to bowl games during the past two seasons, but Golesh is looking to wake this sleeping giant in 2025 by leaping to the top of the American Athletic Conference (AAC).
Which Group of 6 program will start its season off with a victory? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player prop wagers for the Boise State-South Florida season-opening matchup.
Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen may have no idea how well he had it last season. The beauty of having All-American running back Ashton Jeanty was that defenses prepared for Boise State by trying to stop the run.
While no one should sleep on either Sire Gaines or Malik Sherrod this season, the onus to make this offense work falls squarely on Madsen’s shoulders. Last year, the junior signal-caller finished with 3,018 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, and only six interceptions.
It’s safe to say that Madsen will have more than five games surpassing the 216-yard mark this season. Count the season opener as one of them, making him a strong bet to cover this player prop on Thursday.
The transfer portal yielded two strong running backs for the USF backfield. Former Charlotte 49ers player Cartevious Norton appears to have edged out Oklahoma transfer Sam Franklin for the starting spot heading into this matchup.
Typically, bettors should take Norton – or whoever the Bulls’ starting running back is – to cover this player prop bet. Twelve times last season, their running back finished as the leading rusher and amassed over 55 yards in half those matchups.
The problem with taking Norton to cover in this matchup is that bettors don’t know how much time he’ll split with Franklin in the backfield. Add to the equation that mobile quarterback Byrum Brown is expected to start this game, and the smart money points to taking the under on this player prop bet.
For Madsen to have another strong campaign, the quarterback needs some unproven wide receivers to come through this season. The tight end position won’t be an issue, however, as senior Matt Lauter returns for the 2025 campaign.
Last year, Lauter had six games with at least 45 receiving yards. Bettors should expect he’ll continue to be one of Madsen’s top targets again this year. Expect South Florida to focus on the rushing attack, allowing Lauter to post strong stats that cover his player prop bet.
Oddsmakers are sleeping on USF. The Bulls have the highest returning production of any AAC team with at least two-thirds of last year’s production coming back. They also have 161 total starts among the Bulls’ returning players, making the school a prime candidate for a breakout season.
I’m not sure they’ll win against Boise State, especially because the Broncos have the edge in multiple positional matchups. Still, bettors should expect USF to keep this close throughout the contest. Take the Bulls to cover the near-touchdown point spread in a closer-than-projected season-opening contest.