Happy Thursday, sports betting friends! Wednesday was a rough night for us on the college hardwood, as our player props went 1-2 to run our record to 48-43 on the season. That brings our overall profit down to -2.44 units.
Our decision to dive back into rebounding props was a poor one. Both Danny Wolf and Donald Hand Jr. failed to go over their respective number of boards. Wolf's loss was by the hook, so it was even more disappointing.
Thankfully, Alabama's Chris Youngblood got us to the cash-out window, as he finished with 6 points to win our Under 11.5 ticket. The Crimson Tide has really struggled from three-point land of late and they'll need to rectify that to have any hope of beating Auburn on Saturday.
It's been a disappointing few weeks here lately, but I have hope that we'll turn it around soon. Enjoy the action! Let's put Thursday in the win column, folks!
Most online sportsbooks opened this point spread at Michigan State -6.5 on the lookahead line yesterday. Most of the early money has come in on the Spartans, so much so that they're now a 7-point favorite at most betting shops. We're still several hours before tip-off, but that's an early sign that the sharps are leaning toward Michigan State.
The total has seen very little movement so far. The line opened at 151.5 and that's where most betting shops still have it at as of Thursday morning. Iowa's fast-paced offense and soft defense make me lean towards the Over.
Michigan St at Iowa: 8:00 PM EST (FS1)
Richardson has played a vital role in Michigan State's success over the last month, but the sportsbooks have increased his points line way too much. Even with Iowa's lack of defensive prowess, 14.5 is 3.5 points higher than Richardson's median point total of 11.
Another reason to like this Under is the Spartans' incredible depth. Izzo changes out 10 guys all game long, and that usually limits the minutes of each player. Richardson only averages about 23.5 minutes of playing time per game, and that helps our case for the Under.
Richardson is 22-6 to the Under vs. this line in '24-25.
Richardson has gone Under this total in 4 of his last 6 outings.
Richardson has gone Under this line in 9 of his 13 road / neutral games this year.
Michigan St at Iowa: 8:00 PM EST (FS1)
Dix has really stepped up for the Hawkeyes ever since Owen Freeman went down with finger injury several weeks ago. The 6'5" guard never hesitates to pull the trigger from downtown, so I was surprised to see this line at only 1.5. Volume shouldn't be a problem, as Dix typically takes 5 shots or more from beyond the arc.
Sure, Iowa is extremely overmatched in this game, but keep in mind that tonight is senior night for these Hawkeyes. There have also been some rumblings about the job security of Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery. Because of those two factors, I'm banking on an inspired effort from Dix and the Hawkeyes on the offensive end of the floor.
Dix is 14-6 to the Over vs. this line in '24-25.
Dix has gone Over this line in 4 of his last 6.
Dix is 8-3 to the Over vs. this line in home games.
Iowa will play hard and keep this game close in the first half on Senior Night. That being said, Michigan State's depth will be too much for them to handle in the end. The Spartans have a whole slew of guys that can score.
Also, Michigan State's defense is one of the stingiest in the country. Sparty ranks 10th in shooting efficiency allowed and 4th at defending threes. I'll lean towards Michigan State covering the spread on Thursday night.