Welcome to Super Tuesday, sports betting compadres! Monday was a so-so night for us on the college hardwood, as our player props went 1-1 to run our record to 46-40 on the season. That brings our overall profit down to +0.14 units.
Our Under bet on Milos Uzan got us to the cash-out window. It wasn't a sweat-free winner, but he finished with only 10 points in Houston's win over Kansas. This Cougars team is going to be dangerous once again in the NCAA Tournament.
Unfortunately, our Over bet on Hunter Sallis of Wake Forest didn't go as planned. He got off to a decent start, but Duke's suffocating defense held him to just 9 points. It's time to start a new winning streak. Enjoy the college hoops action, folks!
Most online sportsbooks opened this point spread at Purdue -10 on the lookahead line yesterday. Most of the early money has come in on the Boilermakers, so much so that they're now a 10.5-point favorite at most betting shops. We're still several hours before tip-off, but that's an early sign that the sharps are leaning toward the Boilermakers.
The total has seen a little bit of movement as well. The line opened at 154.5 but is now sitting in the 152 to 153 range at most of the prominent betting shops in the country. The move towards the Under kind of makes me scratch my head, especially since both teams rank well outside the Top 150 in defensive efficiency.
Rutgers at Purdue: 7:00 PM EST (Peacock)
This line is a bit of a shocker! Harper is the best scorer on this Scarlet Knights team and I'm expecting a rather large game from him in this tough road game. The dynamic freshman can beat people by driving the lane or from beyond the arc, which should help him get at least 18 points tonight.
Harper's median point total this season is 20, so I'm more than a bit shocked that the sportsbooks made a 2.5-point adjustment downward. Purdue has struggled on the defensive end of the floor for several weeks in a row. The Boilers rank just 340th in two-point defense and just 176th in defensive efficiency.
My main concern with this play is that Harper only scored 6 points against Purdue back on January 9th. However, that was when he was dealing with a brutal flu bug. Look for him to get at least 20 points tonight on the road.
Harper is 17-9 to the Over vs. this line in '24-25.
Harper has averaged 25.3 points per game over his last 3 outings.
Harper has gone Over this line in 9 of his 12 road or neutral-court games this year.
Rutgers at Purdue: 7:00 PM EST (Peacock)
Fletch often goes unnoticed in a lineup that includes superstars like Trey Kaufman-Renn and Braden Smith. However, the 6'5" junior ranks 3rd on the team in scoring (13.8 points per game) and is a dangerous shooter from 3-point land.
Defending the three is a defensive weakness of Rutgers, as they rank just 230th in that vital metric. Don't be surprised if Loyer knocks down three or four shots from downtown here at home. The Scarlet Knights rank just 283rd in points allowed and just 236th in defensive efficiency.
Loyer has gone Over this total in 4 of his last 6 outings.
Loyer has gone Over this line in 11 of his 15 home games this year.
Loyer has gone Over this total in 18 of his 29 games this season.
Rutgers has had a disappointing season, especially when you consider that they have two NBA lottery picks in their lineup. However, the Scarlet Knights have been fighting hard lately, and they showed a lot of grit against Michigan in their last outing.
Purdue has an insanely good home court advantage but asking them to cover a double-digit spread is a tall order. I'll lean the Rutgers +10.5 in this spot on Super Tuesday! Good luck, my friends!