College Basketball fans, it is that time of the year and basketball is in the air! Yes I know a lot of you are still glued to football, and rightfully so, but I will sprinkle some basketball plays during the week to get the juices flowing for you guys!
Our college basketball model picks are currently 13/19, hitting 68%, and I hope to keep that going this week! The model uses two databases, Kenpom and DRatings, to predict its outcomes, and we have found a nice play for this evening!
Oregon St (4-1), travel to Denton, Texas, to take on North Texas (4-1). Both teams have been impressive through their first 5 games. We also have some trends that will break tonight. North Texas has covered this line in 3 of their 5 games, covering all 3 at home. Oregon St is on the road for the first time in 2024 but has covered this in all 5 games.
The Beavers are coming off a 3-point loss at home to Oregon, meanwhile, the Mean Green are coming off a 7-point win at home that saw them struggle to put away a non-ranked Texas Wesleyan.
Home-court advantage can be a big factor for some teams, but I see some glaring mismatches that I believe the Beavers can exploit in this matchup to help them keep things close.
When comparing the efficiency rankings, North Texas does have the upper hand in both offense and defense. Per Kenpom, they both have above- college average defenses, but below-average offenses. There were 5-6 categories that stood out to me that I believe gives Oregon St the upper hand to keep this game close tonight.
The most glaring were the Effective Field Goal % and 2-Point %. North Texas ranks 345th shooting 40.6% from 2-point range, while Oregon St ranks 133rd, hitting 53.7%. Oregon St also ranks 127th with 52.6% effective fg%, with North Texas sitting at 294th, 45.1%. Oregon St also wins the turnover battle, ranking 55th, with a 14% turnover rate compared to 18%, and 183rd rank for North Texas.
North Texas likes to slow the game down and get to the line, with an evident 24% of their points coming from the line. Oregon St on the other hand sees 48.5% of their points from 2-point, and if they can be efficient on that end, vs a stout Mean Green defense, they should be able to outshoot them.
Oregon St moves the ball very well, ranking 84th with a 57% assist/field goal made, which is what North Texas allows on defense. If North Texas cannot get to the foul line, I believe Oregon St will find a way to be efficient on offense with their passing ability and their ability to protect the ball to find the best look. Neither team runs a fast pace, and Oregon St should settle in here.
My Best Bet: Oregon St +6 (-125) DraftKings