Jordan Miller Questionable
Bogdan Bogdanovic Out
Derrick Jones Jr Out
Bradley Beal Out
Jacob Toppin Out
Kristaps Porzingis Out
Trae Young Out
The Clippers are in Atlanta for this game, facing one of the coldest teams in the league against one of the hottest. The Clippers just can’t seem to find their footing this year. They’ve struggled from the start despite making changes; this team doesn’t click. Simply put, they’re too old and slow to keep up in an increasingly athletic league. It’s not that the team lacks talent—Kawhi and Harden are still performing well when they play. The problem is the lack of athleticism around them holding this group back. Losing Norman Powell’s scoring punch has been worse than expected, and the veterans filling the bench haven’t held up. Meanwhile, this team runs one of the slowest offenses in the league and struggles to score. They mainly rely on isolation plays and set half-court offenses with little movement. It still gets their stars their points, but outside of those two, this roster lacks firepower. Defensively, the situation isn’t as bad, but it’s not impressive either. With Derrick Jones still out, they’re one player away from having that side of the ball back in shape. Overall, the Clippers just aren’t a threat anymore.
Atlanta is on the opposite side of that conversation. While the Clippers went veteran-heavy, the Hawks are young. They’ve built up their core around Jalen Johnson, with long, versatile defenders. Even with Trae Young out, the team has actually thrived more. Starting Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels has unlocked a new level for this team that could take them far. Add in Okongwu’s rise as well, and you can see how this group has climbed back to 13-9 after a tough start. They’re a well-rounded team with plenty of offensive and defensive firepower that is sure to give the Clippers trouble tonight.
This matchup will really come down to Atlanta. They have the tools to outpace the Clippers and make them uncomfortable. Especially on the road, if they push in transition and keep the Clippers on the open court, they will likely win this game. They just can’t fall into the slow, plotted pace the Clippers prefer. If they do, and the game stays low scoring, the Clippers might have a chance to steal it. Still, the talent disparity between the teams is significant. The Clippers will struggle against such a diverse range of athletes. That’s why I’m betting on the Hawks moneyline, the over on the 226.5 points total, and the -3.5 spread for Atlanta.
Money line: LAC (+136) / ATL (-102)
Total Points: 226.5
Spread: +3.5 LAC (-112) / -3.5 ATL (-108)
Despite the Clippers' struggling, Harden is having an impressive season, averaging nearly 27 points per game. While his numbers have dipped slightly, he scored over 30 points the last time he faced Atlanta. As he will be the primary scoring option again, Harden is likely in a great position to score 26 or more points tonight.
In another Clippers game, we’re looking at Zubac's rebounding line once again. Although he has regressed a bit this season, his rebounding numbers remain strong. Over the last 10 games, he has averaged over 12 rebounds per game, and for the season, he's securing more than 11 boards per game. Considering he is one of the primary big men for the Clippers and is playing over 35 minutes per game, Zubac should be able to surpass this mark.
Alexander-Walker has been exceptional for Atlanta this year, especially with Trae Young sidelined. He’s averaging over 20 points per game with impressive shooting while also contributing as a positive defender. However, tonight, the under on his scoring line looks more appealing. He usually scores around 20 points most nights, and due to the pace of play the Clippers typically run, NAW may not have enough opportunities to exceed this number.
Daniels has been performing well as the lead defensive guard, averaging 2.3 steals per game. However, facing the Clippers presents a unique challenge. As he is likely to guard Harden throughout the game, he may not have many chances to make steals. Considering the amount of isolation play the Clippers engage in and Harden’s ability to draw fouls against aggressive defenders, the under on Daniels’ steals looks promising tonight.