Bobby Portis Questionable
Gary Harris Questionable
Kevin Porter Jr Questionable
Giannis Antetokounmpo Questionable
Taurean Prince Out
Duncan Robinson Questionable
Bobi Klintman Out
Marcus Sasser Out
The Pistons keep rolling on the second night of a back-to-back, heading to Milwaukee. As one of the top teams in the East, they’re on the rise while Milwaukee is declining. How the tables have turned on these two.
The Bucks just can’t get their act together after a stumbly start this year. To be frank, it’s just a mess in Milwaukee. After losing Lillard last year and then waiving him to bring in Myles Turner, the situation in Milwaukee has been desperate. While they’ve found some moments of success and some steals like Ryan Rollins, they just don’t have enough talent. They have to rely on Giannis to win them every game, and he just can’t do it all alone. The defense remains decent, but the offense hasn’t been inspired. While they are leading the league in three-point shooting percentage and have a solid FG%, their shooting is limited. They’re near the bottom of the league in attempts per game and also near the bottom in pace. This team basically revolves around getting Giannis the ball and driving in. Although Kuzma has stepped up offensively at times, and Rollins has contributed, when Giannis isn’t dominating, the team struggles. They've run out of options to fix the roster, too, making the situation bleak. All-in-all this looks like it could be the last strike before midnight for the Bucks before they turn back into a pumpkin.
On the other side, Detroit looks like they’ve finally ascended. Behind Cade, this squad has rounded out into something dangerous. They’re physical, insanely strong, and hyper-athletic. Jalen Duren is one of the most terrifying guys in the NBA at this point, the way he can attack on both ends of the court. Sprinkle in a few wings like Thompson and Holland, and this group has attitude. However, it’s not just unbridled aggression out there. It’s physicality and bully ball with a purpose. Robinson and Harris keep things civilized, maintaining the flow and hitting from deep. This combination of inside and outside force is why they’ve climbed so quickly. This group is going to be a bitch to play any night.
When it comes to this matchup, it’s hard to see the Bucks having much of a chance, especially if Giannis is out. The only chance I see the Bucks having in this one is hitting from deep and keeping the game low scoring. They’re never going to win a shootout or a foot race against the Pistons. If they can control the pace, feed Giannis, and hit their threes, they might have a chance. But still, this is a long shot for Milwaukee. Detroit is clearly the better team in this matchup, which is why I’m taking the Pistons moneyline, the under on the 230.5 points total, and the spread at +4.5.
Money line: DET (-185) / MIL (+154)
Total Points: 230.5
Spread: -4.5 DET (-108) / +4.5 MIL (-112)
Rollins has been the surprise of the year. Coming out of relative obscurity to become one of the leading scorers on the Bucks, averaging nearly 18 points a game, he’s been solid from outside this year, shooting nearly 40%. His shooting has made him one of the most important pieces next to Giannis and has increased his shot volume. Even with most of the Bucks' starters questionable tonight, Rollins should see a solid shot volume to reach 15 points. Even against this tough Detroit defense, Rollins should be able to get to the rim and hit from deep.
Cade is proving that last season was no fluke. Sitting at 28 points a game so far this season, he’s been one of the best scorers in the league. While his three-pointer hasn’t been great, his ability to get to the rim and to the line has kept the scoring flowing. Especially against this Milwaukee backcourt, Cade should be able to knife in and get his numbers. If Giannis ends up out as well, Cade will likely cruise to 30+ points tonight, even on the second night of a back-to-back.
Stewart has been a key player for the Detroit bench. Although he’s only averaging about 22 minutes per game, his blocking numbers are impressive. He’s averaging 1.9 blocks per game for the season. He just recorded 5 blocks against the Hawks last night alone. While his blocks often come in bursts, Milwaukee is the type of team he can get those against. With limited shooting options and smaller guards running the bench offense, he should be in a prime position to protect the rim.
While Duren has been a monster in the paint this year, his rebounder numbers might dip a little tonight. If Giannis is playing, Duren will likely be pulled into help defense to protect the rim. If Giannis is out, I doubt Detroit plays Duren too many minutes on the second night of a back-to-back road game. With Stewart available, Duren could see limited minutes either way, probably keeping him under 12 rebounds tonight.