Matisse Thybulle Out
Donovan Clingan Questionable
Scoot Henderson Out
Jrue Holiday Out
Blake Wesley Out
Damian Lillard Out
RJ Barrett Out
Portland is heading to Canada to face Toronto for the first time this season. Although Portland has struggled with injuries and inconsistency at the start of the season, the Raptors are thriving. They have emerged as a real threat in the Eastern Conference, thanks to their solid two-way roster. The addition of Brandon Ingram has elevated the team to a new level. His ability to create his own shots while also opening up the court has been invaluable. This new dynamic has given a team that has historically struggled offensively a completely fresh identity. It's not uncommon to see three or even four players scoring over 20 points in a game. With their size at most positions, it’s clear where their early season success is coming from.
Toronto is a team that should be taken seriously in the league. After a nine-game winning streak, they recently lost back-to-back games against the Knicks and Hornets. While this isn't immediately concerning, reviewing their schedule raises some questions. The quality of competition they have faced hasn’t been awe-inspiring. Aside from their two victories against Cleveland, most of their wins in November came against teams with poor records. Out of their 13 victories that month, only four were against teams with records above .500. Although teams can only compete against those in front of them, this dominant stretch may be slightly overrated by the bookmakers.
Now, coming off a couple of losses and facing a Portland team that has held its own against some of the best teams in the West, Toronto might be in for a challenging matchup.
As for Portland, this season has been somewhat chaotic. With all of their point guards sidelined, they have been a scrappy team trying to stay competitive. Despite their struggling record, they continue to keep games close, even against top-tier opponents like OKC. Defensively, their performance can be inconsistent depending on the lineup, but offensively, they have been rough. While their efficiency is lacking, Portland's fast-paced, run-and-gun style has been effective at times. They rank third in the league for pace, generating a high number of free throw attempts per game, mainly due to players like Deni Avdija and Jerami Grant. Both of these wings can shoot from the perimeter or attack the rim, drawing contact in the paint. Although their shooting efficiency can fluctuate based on officiating, this strategy has balanced out Portland's scoring throughout the season. Overall, they are a feisty team that, when hitting their shots, can defeat nearly anyone.
Regarding the matchup, this is going to be a tough one. Toronto’s ability to move the ball and find quality shooters gives them an advantage. However, Portland has struggled against opponents with multiple scoring options. When they are unable to rely on Camara to defend the primary scorer and must resort to team defense, it tends to backfire. On the other hand, Portland's offense could prove frustrating for Toronto. Their downhill style and transition play may be challenging for Toronto to defend effectively. While Toronto should be capable of handling Portland’s half-court offense, if Portland manages to earn favorable officiating calls, the game could remain close.
Overall, Toronto seems slightly overvalued in this matchup. They are still the superior team, so I’ll take their moneyline, along with the over on the total points of 230.5. However, I’ll go with Portland’s spread at +5.5 for tonight.
Money line: POR (+180) / TOR (-218)
Total Points: 230.5
Spread: +5.5 POR (-110) / -5.5 TOR (-110)
This line feels undervalued at the moment. Sharpe has been a streaky scorer coming into this game, but he’s solid in games where he can find space. Before Portland’s games against OKC and the Spurs, Sharpe was dropping 30+ nearly every game. Considering the Raptors are a long, switchable team, Sharpe should be able to get into the paint with his speed. As long as he’s not settling for three points and attacks the rim or midrange, he should be able to fly past this line.
Quickley has taken a step up in scoring this season. Dropping 16 points a game on average, but tonight could be tough. Portland has the size to make driving for Quickley a challenge while contesting three-pointers hard. Considering Quickley’s shooting slump as of late, I expect his shot volume to drop tonight as Ingram and Barnes attack inside the arc, where Portland has been allowing teams to shoot nearly 50%. With the line set at 17.5, the under is looking like the value play.
Ingram hasn’t really been known as a defender during his tenure in the NBA, but tonight could be different. Taking on Portland, who is still missing all their PGs, which means they’re one of the most turnover-prone teams in the league. Portland’s opponents are averaging 10 steals a game on Portland, the most in the league. Considering Ingram will likely be playing on Portland’s wings like Avdija or Camara, he should be in great spots to snag errant passes to hit the 2 steal mark.
Camara has been a killer on the boards lately. He averaged nearly 6 rebounds per game in November. His presence on the defensive glass has only gone up as the season continues. Toss in a few offensive boards every now and again, and the over starts to look solid at nearly even odds. Especially with Clingan questionable tonight, Camara might need to up his rebounding numbers to cover for his absence. Either way, Camara on the over is looking decent today.