Neemias Queta Probable
Derrick White Probable
Jayson Tatum Out
OG Anunoby Out
Landry Shamet Out
The Knicks are making the short trip to Boston to face the Celtics. While Boston hasn’t performed at the level we’ve seen in recent years, they still have a solid team. Currently sitting at 11-9 for the season, this group is somewhat inconsistent. With Jaylen Brown as the leader, the overall roster lacks depth. Specifically, their three-point shooting has been a challenge. Players like Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, and Brown himself have struggled to convert from long range. Overall, for a team expected to compete primarily through offense, their offensive performance has been quite average. Without Jayson Tatum drawing defensive attention, the team has taken a significant step back in its abilities. However, they’ve still managed to secure some good wins lately, beating Cleveland, Orlando, and Detroit last week. When their offense clicks and Brown finds his rhythm, they can challenge even the top teams in the East, which they’ll need to do against the Knicks.
On the other hand, New York isn’t perfect but has shown promise this season. However, with OG Anunoby sidelined, the team dynamics have become more interesting. Losing his size, defensive skills, and shooting has changed the team’s balance significantly. While Josh Hart has stepped up to fill the gap somewhat, this group is now more reliant on its offense. Despite having a strong offense all year, currently ranking 5th in points per game, they’ve been allowing an average of 113 points per game to opponents. With Anunoby out, that gap is likely to narrow, making New York more vulnerable to teams like Boston.
This matchup will primarily come down to Boston’s shooting. While the battle between Brown and Mikal Bridges will be intriguing, if Pritchard, Simons, and White aren’t hitting their shots, Boston will struggle. Karl-Anthony Towns can exploit the Celtics’ defense inside or spread the floor to allow Jalen Brunson to attack. Although Boston has the length to defend Brunson tonight, they face a dilemma between focusing on scoring or defense. Most of the season, they’ve opted for stronger defensive schemes, but tonight they may have no choice but to lean on their shooters.
Overall, I like the matchup for the Knicks tonight. I’m taking the Knicks' moneyline, the over on the total of 231.5 points, and the New York spread at +1.5.
Money line: NYK (-108) / BOS (-112)
Total Points: 231.5
Spread: +1.5 NYK (-120) / -1.5 BOS (+100)
This line stands out as one of the best options of the night. Although Towns hasn't been dominant in every game, he should perform well against the Celtics. In their most recent matchup, Towns scored 26 points, and given that Boston's center depth hasn't improved, he should be able to work effectively inside all night.
Hart has significantly benefited from OG Anunoby's absence. His shot volume has increased by at least three attempts per game, and he has consistently emerged as the third scoring option. Since he’s also playing over 35 minutes a night, he should have ample opportunity to find his shot. He has exceeded this line in all three of the Knicks' recent games, and with Boston's frontcourt still a bit shaky, Hart shouldn’t have any trouble reaching 13 points.
Simons remains one of the most unpredictable players in the league regarding offensive production. On days he’s feeling it, he can play over 30 minutes, but on others, if his shot isn’t falling, he can end up with less than 20 points. This is likely to be a coin flip, but taking the under seems like a more prudent choice.
Queta has recently taken over as the starting center for Boston, averaging nearly 30 minutes per game. He has been a significant presence on the boards for Boston, currently averaging 8.5 rebounds per game. While his rebounding numbers can be inconsistent, he will be crucial tonight against Towns down low. Given that the Knicks are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league, Queta is expected to see plenty of minutes to help dominate the boards. Even though the over-under for his rebounds is set at 10 for the night, this line still offers solid value at just over even money.