Jordan McLaughlin Out
Dylan Harper Questionable
Stephon Castle Out
Victor Wembanyama Out
Shaedeon Sharpe Questionable
Scoot Henderson Out
Jrue Holiday Out
Blake Wesley Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Damian Lillard Out
We’re approaching one of the final cup games of the group stage. With Portland currently leading their group, tonight could be their chance to advance, but with San Antonio in the way, that’s no easy task. Even with Wemby still out, this group has some incredible talent across the board. Portland will need to bring their A-game tonight.
The Spur’s season has gone about as well as you’d hope. Even without Wemby for the last four games, they’ve managed a 3-1 record. Fox has made a huge difference on the court as the veteran leader. Over that stretch without Wemby, Fox has been averaging nearly 26 points a game with solid shooting splits. He’s been keeping the wheels moving while they aim to get back to full strength. However, they may be getting a little closer, as Dylan Harper is questionable to play tonight, which is an improvement. If he’s available, he could swing the entire dynamic of this team for the better. Even without him, this group is still scary. With size, range, and depth, this team can’t be overlooked.
For Portland, they’re going to need things to go right. With so many injuries, they’re running a shoestring group out there. Almost all the playmaking is coming from the front court currently, making their half-court offense vulnerable. Often, they just go iso ball through Grant or Avdija. But, it’s been working. By attacking in transition and finding plenty of points in the paint, they’re scrapping together just enough offense. Defensively, this team has bounced from elite to mediocrity and back. They have the personnel to dominate, but it’s not guaranteed to come together every night. Overall, shooting remains the true weakness of this team. Sitting near the bottom in 3-point percentage, but at the top in three-point attempts, has led to hit-or-miss games. So if Portland can hit from three, they’re going to be a real force for San Antonio.
Overall, this matchup feels a little strange. Portland is favored, but they haven’t shown the consistency that gives me confidence against San Antonio. They’ll need to rely offensively on Grant and Avdija in the paint. With Sochan, Kornet, and Barnes on the opposing front court, it’s a 50/50 chance of how they’ll perform. If Portland can attack in transition, get to the line, and shut down Fox, they should be able to win. But I’m skeptical they’ll accomplish that. Especially considering Portland’s many poor shooting nights, I trust San Antonio more. That’s why I’m going with the Spurs moneyline, the over on the 239.5 points total, and the San Antonio spread at +1.5.
Money line: POR (-120) / SAS (+100)
Total Points: 239.5
Spread: -1.5 POR (-102) / +1.5 SAS (-118)
Sochan has seen a solid increase in his minutes with Wemby sidelined, averaging around 20 minutes per game so far. Offensively, however, he hasn’t experienced a huge boost recently, but against Portland, he should. Even though Portland's on-ball defense has been strong, their team defense has struggled. They’ve allowed shooters and cutters to beat them all season. Since Sochan is mainly used as a three-and-D player, he’ll have opportunities to penetrate when they overhelp or to catch some open threes. Although the three-point shot hasn’t been falling well, 9 points seems about right for Sochan tonight.
Grant has been the guy for Portland outside of Avdija. In Portland’s last game against the Bucks, he scored 35 points with 19 free throw attempts. He probably won’t reach that number again, but Grant’s willingness to attack the paint and get to the line has been effective. He’s averaging just under 20 points a game, and with most of Portland’s guards still sidelined, he’ll pick up the offensive slack.
As one of the best defenders in the league this year, Camara has some of the most active hands around. Averaging about 1.3 steals per game, he’ll have a good shot at a couple tonight. The Spurs are near the top in opponent steals per game at nearly 9 a game. Given that Camara should be on the floor a lot tonight, he should be able to chase a few on the defensive end. Coming off back-to-back games with 2 steals, the plus money on this line looks appealing.
Fox has been ruthlessly efficient since returning. Averaging 23.5 points a game, he’s been consistently right around 26 a night for the past five games. However, Camara is going to be one of the toughest one-on-one defenders he’s faced since he came back. Even with the three-point shot dropping a little more consistently for him, taking away Fox’s ability to get downhill toward the rim is going to cut into his points. Especially if Harper makes his return tonight, that’ll only cut deeper into his scoring opportunities.