Draymond Green Probable
Al Horford Out
Jonathan Kuminga Out
De’Anthony Melton Out
Steven Adams Out
Dorian Finney-Smith Out
Kevin Durant Questionable
Tari Eason Out
Fred VanVleet Out
Houston is on the way to the Bay for their final group stage NBA Cup game. At this point, it doesn’t really matter for either team since neither is likely to advance, but it’s one last look at the special court. Either way, this game should be interesting. The Warriors were a pain for Houston last season, knocking them out of the playoffs and dominating them during the regular season. After some off-season additions, mainly Kevin Durant, it looked like this could be a revenge game, but KD is out tonight after the birth of his child. The team from last year now has to face their boogeyman without their veteran leadership.
This doesn’t mean the Warriors will be the easy choice either. This team keeps struggling, and facing Houston will be tough. Golden State has had trouble against athletic teams all season. When teams are fast on the floor with wings and have size inside, they haven’t done much to stop them. Since Houston is exactly that, this game could get pretty rough. What the Warriors do have going for them is shooting. Curry has been outstanding outside, while Butler is solid inside. The role players have been the main problem lately. Podz just isn’t scoring like he needs to, and Hield has been almost unplayable. Also, with Al Horford looking finished, leaving only Quinten Post and Trayce Jackson-Davis to guard the post, it’s been a challenge. The Warriors will need another big Curry game to seriously challenge the Rockets. But with homecourt advantage and his current form, that’s definitely possible.
For the Rockets, they just need to get out of their own way. This team without Durant is dangerous. Amen Thompson has taken a leap, along with Sengun. Those two should give the Warriors nightmares with the way they can attack the rim. The problem will be not having Durant spreading the floor for them. Houston improved by nearly 10% in their three-point shooting compared to last year. Most of which can be attributed to Durant. Leaving second-year guy Reed Sheppard on the hot seat to make up for it. He’s been good this year, shooting 47% from three on nearly six attempts a game, which gives me some optimism. Overall, the Rockets are well equipped to take on a struggling Warriors squad.
In general, this is the Rockets’ game to lose. They have the tools to press hard on all the Warriors’ weaknesses. But that doesn’t mean they’ll do it. If the Rockets lose control of the pace, they can easily fall behind, especially considering the shooting of Golden State. Particularly if they let the Warriors live at the free throw line, the Rockets will lose all their advantages. However, this game still feels like Houston should have the edge. I have to take the Rockets’ moneyline, the over on the 224.5 points total, and the Houston spread at +2.5.
Money line: HOU (+120) / GSW (-142)
Total Points: 224.5
Spread: +2.5 HOU (-112) / +2.5 GSW (-108)
Curry continues to dominate teams from deep, averaging 30 points a game in November and hitting over 5 threes per game. With him also getting to the line fairly often, especially against younger teams, the matchup against the Rockets looks promising. Even though Thompson will be a tough defender on him, Curry should be able to work from the perimeter enough to give himself a solid shot at 27+ points tonight.
This line seems a bit high for Capela. Even without Steven Adams tonight, the Rockets are generally good at rebounding. Smith, Thompson, and Sengun are all strong rebounders who will reduce Capela’s chances on the boards. With the Warriors probably going small again tonight, the Rockets might not even need Capela to play many minutes. Averaging just 10 minutes a game and only exceeding the line twice in November, the under feels like a safe bet again.
While Thompson isn’t exactly known for his shot-blocking abilities, he’s still quite capable of doing it. Normally, he’s too far out on defense to contest shots, but against the Warriors, things will be different. Given the number of threes the Warriors take, Thompson should stay close to shooters much more often. Thanks to his incredible athleticism, he should be able to make plays on the perimeter and get a block. With nearly even odds on what feels like a 50/50 line, it’s not a bad option tonight.
Butler hasn’t been a prolific scorer this season, as I expected coming into the year. He’s still capable of getting up there, but 20 points is about where he prefers to hang around. His reliance on the free-throw line is what's making me lean towards the under tonight. The Rockets have plenty of solid wing defenders who can guard Butler without fouling. If they can keep Butler under 8 free-throw attempts tonight, he'll likely struggle to reach 20.