VJ Edgecombe Out
Kelly Oubre Jr Out
Paul George Out
Joel Embiid Out
Adem Bona Out
Moritz Wagner Out
Paolo Banchero Out
The Magic are heading to Philly for a pre-Thanksgiving game. Although we’ve only seen these two teams play once before, this matchup will be very different. With four of the five starters out in Philly, things look pretty grim from the start. They haven't been healthy all year, and it seems to be getting worse. Even JV Edgecombe is out tonight. That leaves just three guards—Maxey, Grimes, and McCain—to hold things together tonight.
For the Magic, they’ll be without Paolo, but they’ve been slowly stabilizing this year. After a rough start, things have finally turned around for the roster. The weird part has been how much of that has happened with Banchero out. While he is the best player on the team, his lack of range and shot selection has been an issue for the offense. Since he went out against the Knicks on the 12th, the Magic have gone 4-2. Beyond the conundrum of Paolo, this team is just clunky offensively already. They brought in Bane to create more space, but his three-ball has completely disappeared. While Suggs continues to struggle as well, this group just isn’t built to hit from outside, leaving them vulnerable. The most alarming part has been the defense. They went from a juggernaut last year to being somewhat flimsy at times. They’ve recovered somewhat, but it’s been a weird shift in only a single season with predominantly the same personnel. Either way, they should have an advantage tonight.
The Magic are coming to Philly at the perfect time. While the guards' scoring still remains dangerous, the Magic should be able to find their way inside all night. The 76ers are going to start Watford, Drummond, and Edwards in the front court. That combo isn’t terrible, but defensively, they’re going to be in trouble against Wagner. He’ll be the entire X-factor of this game. We expect to see Maxey and the other Philly guards score plenty, so the Magic will need to keep up. Their best chance of doing that is attacking inside with Wagner all night. Drummond is a solid shot blocker, but if Wagner gets a switch to either guard, he’s going to dominate them to clear space in the midrange. The 76ers still remain scary even down a host of guys, but they’re just so thin. Maxey can only do so much, and I don’t see them being able to get over the hurdle tonight. That’s why I’m going with the Magic moneyline, the over on the 228.5 points total, and the Orlando spread at -3.5.
Money line: ORL (-162) / PHI (+136)
Total Points: 228.5
Spread: -3.5 ORL (-105) / +3.5 PHI (-115)
While McCain is still clearly getting back to speed after his injury, he’s probably going to see a decent amount of minutes tonight. With his first few games back limited in playing time, he did surpass 25 minutes in his last game. Facing the Heat, he scored 15 points on excellent shooting splits. Now, facing another injured Magic team, McCain should see his number called often tonight with VJ out.
Maxey might set a record tonight for shot attempts. He’s already averaging 23 shots a game in November, and he’s jumped to nearly 30 during this last stretch with all the injuries. Despite this increase in shot volume, his percentages have remained steady at nearly 47% from the field and 40% from three. He’s likely to have his number called again tonight, with VJ, George, Oubre, and Embiid still out. The entire weight of the offense will fall on him once more. With 43 points against the Magic the last time they played, the over looks solid.
With most of the Philly roster sidelined tonight, they’re running out a small unit. They’ll probably operate through McCain, Grimes, and Maxey all night, leaving them only a few bench wings to handle Wagner. While Franz hasn’t been the most consistent scorer, we’ve seen him step up on nights without Paolo. If Wagner can get his shot volume near 17 tonight, he should be able to hit the over again.
No Embiid, no Bona, means Drummond is going to have another 30+ minute night on the floor. If there is one thing this man can do, it’s rebound extremely well. In his last game against Miami, Drummond pulled down 24 boards in 38 minutes. He’s averaging 12.7 rebounds a game, and in games where he plays over 35 minutes, he’s consistently been over the 14-board mark. With almost no other healthy options available at the 5, Drummond should get plenty of run again.