Jordan Miller Out
Bogdan Bogdanovic Questionable
Derrick Jones Jr Out
Bradley Beal Out
Deandre Ayton Out
We have a battle for LA tonight as the Clippers and Lakers clash in crypto. While these teams have had polar opposite starts to the season, this game should be be interesting. The Clippers are looking a little healthier with Kawhi and Harden both off the injury list. That should add some much-needed firepower to this ailing squad. However, with LeBron back in the lineup, we’ll see how far that goes.
The Clippers' season so far can be summed up in one word: disaster. They have completely fallen flat right from the start. Injuries, roster changes, and just bad luck have kept this team at a pitiful 5-12 record. They've shown a little more hope recently, but at their core, this team doesn’t work. They gambled on too many veteran players who are too deep into their careers to make a real difference. Losing Norman Powell in the off-season has also left this group thin. It’s funny because on paper, this team looks incredible. They had decent depth, a good mix of offense and defense, plus star power. It just hasn’t come together yet. But tonight might be a good chance for it to happen. Harden, Kawhi, Dunn, Collins, and Zubac are all set to start tonight, giving the Clippers one of their best lineups. While the bench still remains shaky, this starting five could actually give the Lakers some trouble. They have size in Zubac that will challenge the Lakers on both ends of the floor. While Kawhi will likely give Luka some challenges, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Clippers tonight, but at least they have a shot.
For the Lakers, this year has started off about as well as you could hope. Despite some injuries, they've persisted through them to a solid 12-4 record so far. Luka is looking as good as ever, and Reaves has turned into a true star. Now that LeBron is back to complete the trio, we’ll see just how far this group can go. They should have a massive scoring advantage tonight with that group. The Clippers have a few options, but Luka and Reaves are sure to keep the scoring pressure high all night. The Lakers are down Ayton tonight, which will hurt their production a bit. He’s been averaging nearly 17 points a game on amazing efficiency, which will be hard to replace with Hayes if he starts. Overall, this will be a solid test for the Lakers.
The matchup will likely come down to pace. As usual, the Clippers tend to favor a slower tempo, which limits shot attempts but often provides decent looks. However, the Lakers are in a similar boat. The biggest difference is their three-point shooting. While the Clippers have been slightly above league average, the Lakers are near the bottom. Still, the Lakers make up for it with trips to the line, averaging nearly 30 attempts per game. That will be a key for the Clippers tonight. If they can avoid sending Luka or Reaves to the line, while capitalizing on their superior three-point shooting, they might sneak out a win. I believe they will, and with some solid plus odds, I’m going with the Clippers moneyline, the over on 229.5 points, and the Clippers spread at +6.5.
Money line: LAC (+210) / LAL (-258)
Total Points: 229.5
Spread: +6.5 LAC (-112) / -6.5 LAL (-108)
Harden has still been Harden lately. While he might not always score 20+ points per game, he should be fine against the Lakers' defense. Especially with how he’s been getting to the line recently, he should do well tonight. Although the Lakers usually win the free throw battle, Harden is one of the few players in the NBA who can actually narrow that gap. If his three-point shot is falling consistently, 25 points should be well within reach.
This is an excellent matchup for Zubac tonight. No Ayton means he’ll be going against Jaxson Hayes most of the night. Hayes might be the better defender between him and Ayton, but Zubac should still exploit him. He’s shooting 62% from the field this season, and averaging 17 points a game. Considering his increased usage rate over the past few games, Zubac should be a big factor tonight.
With James making his return against the Jazz, he’s taking on more of a role player position than he ever has before. With Luka and Reaves handling most of the workload, LeBron just needs to focus on the small things in the meantime. Given how much this team rebounds, especially Luka, I don’t expect James to dominate on the boards. He’s been letting the younger guys go for those rebounds. In both games against Utah, he was under this line. Considering the Clippers also play at one of the slowest paces in the league, limiting total shot attempts, he should stay below this line tonight.
This line just feels low for Luka’s assist total. Yes, the Clippers will have Kawhi to challenge him and LeBron will help defend, but he’s still averaging nearly 9 a game this season. I don’t see how adding LeBron and having Reaves on the offensive side leads to fewer than 8 assists for Luka. Out of the nine games Luka has played this November, he’s gone over in six of them. This seems like a strong line to back tonight.