Giannis Antetokounmpo Out
Taurean Prince Out
Kevin Porter Jr Out
Robert Williams Day-to-day
Shaedon Sharpe Questionable
Scoot Henderson Out
Jrue Holiday Out
Blake Wesley Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Damian Lillard Out
The Bucks have been one of the more peculiar teams this year. After a wild off-season, this group had a decent start to the season. They were hit or miss night to night, but with Giannis, they had something. Now, with Giannis gone for the foreseeable future, this group has cratered. While Portland hasn’t been a gleaming beacon of success either, their injury woes have held them back as well. With both rosters banged up and limited already, this should be a crapshoot between the two.
For the Bucks, they need to figure out their scoring. They’ve been extremely limited over the last few games without Giannis. It’s taken Ryan Rollins going wild to keep them competitive. While their last three games have been against solid opponents like Detroit and Cleveland, they’ve struggled against anyone who can score. The defense for Milwaukee has been good, but without Giannis, it's not the same. There are some glimmers of hope tonight though. Rollins has been a great find for a team in desperate need of guards. Kuzma has been looking decent, shooting nearly 50% from the field. Overall, they're feisty enough to keep this one competitive despite the injuries.
The situation in Portland hasn’t improved much, either. They’re relying on their fifth-string point guard, Caleb Love. He’s been okay, but with Henderson, Holiday, Wesley, and Lillard all out, the team is thin. The deep bench is often getting minutes just to preserve the starters' energy. Still, Portland has a solid group of wings to deploy. Grant and Camara have been good, but Avdija has stepped up. He’s gone from a solid rotation player to someone who could likely make an all-star team. He’s been doing everything—running the offense, leading fast breaks, and playing decent defense. Portland depends on him to carry some of their half-court offense. Which they'll need every bit of to overcome Milwaukee.
This is going to be a weird matchup. While Portland is playing on the second night of a back-to-back, they rest most of their starters last night. The Bucks do have home-court advantage plus an extra day of rest, but that doesn't feel like enough. Portland just has a few more guys who look serviceable compared to the Bucks right now. Especially if Camara can slow down Rollins, like he’s done to some of the best guards in the league, the scoring options are thin. I expect this game to stay fairly low scoring, with Portland having enough of an offensive edge to win. That’s why I’m taking the Portland moneyline, the under on the 231.5 points total, and the +1.5 POR spread.
Money line: MIL (-122) / POR (+102)
Total Points: 231.5
Spread: -1.5 MIL (-110) / +1.5 POR (-110)
Avdija has stepped up to keep Portland’s offense moving during a tough, injury-filled start to the season. He can push the pace, get to the basket, and shoot from outside, making him Milwaukee’s biggest challenge tonight. With Giannis out, Avdija should have a good chance to get past Kuzma or Portis, depending on who guards him.
Turner is the kind of big man who has caused problems for Portland. He can shoot from outside and take advantage of missed rebounds for easy points. Although his scoring has been inconsistent, he should get plenty of chances tonight. If he can get inside the paint, he’s likely to have a good game.
Clingan didn’t play much in last night’s game against the Thunder because it turned into a blowout, so he only got 20 minutes. His playing time changes based on the matchup, but he should get more minutes tonight. If he plays at least 25 minutes, he should reach around 10 rebounds. He averages 9.9 per game, so 10 boards is pretty normal for him now.
Rollins has been playing well with Giannis out, but tonight’s matchup will be tough. He’ll face Camara and other strong defenders, which could make things harder for him. Portland has done a great job limiting opposing guards, especially when one player is carrying the load. Expect Rollins to pass more tonight as the defense focuses on him.