Jalen Smith Probable
Tre Jones Questionable
Coby White Questionable
Zach Collins Out
Nikola Jovic Out
Andrew Wiggins Out
Tyler Herro Out
Terry Rozier Out
These teams are hot as they clash in Chicago tonight. The Bulls have been feeling good after they ended their West Coast road trip with a couple of wins. While they stumbled in early November, going on a five-game losing streak, they feel like they’ve turned the corner. Adding Coby White back has helped stabilize the scoring significantly, providing a solid perimeter threat. He is questionable tonight, but if he plays, he will make these teams neck and neck. The real star of the show continues to be Josh Giddey, though. He’s elevated his gameplay in almost every way possible, averaging nearly 10 assists per game and scoring efficiently too. Surround him with big bodies like Buzelis, Vuc, and Okoro, and you’ve got a lethal transition group, which is exactly how they like to play—sitting at 4th in fast break points this season. However, Miami sits right above them at 3rd.
The Heat have been moving just as fast as Chicago. They get the ball out in transition quickly and attack before the defense can set. Even if they aren’t able to break in, Norm Powell has been on fire lately. He’s been carrying the offense while Herro remains sidelined. Pairing him with Bam and Ware in the post has created an unstoppable inside-outside duo. They’re at the top of the league, next to Chicago, in points per game at 123. This is partly because both of these teams sit close in assists per game as well. The ball moves quickly on both offenses, finding cutters or open shooters. It’s quite interesting how similar these two teams are.
Overall, this game will come down to pace. It's probably the first time both of these teams have played against an opponent who wants to run as much as they do. However, with the matchup being so close, Chicago has a few small advantages that make them a favorite. With Miami missing Wiggins and Jovic, they’re losing significant wing pressure. That will loosen up the defense just enough to let Giddey drive to the rim. While the Heat have the better post defense, I’m slightly skeptical they can survive. If the Chicago guards get into the paint, that could put Ware in a tough spot given his tendency to foul. If Ware gets into foul trouble, it’ll be tough to keep up with the game. Plus, the homecourt advantage probably gives the Bulls just enough of a boost to get over the hump. That’s why I’m betting on the Bulls moneyline, the under on the 250.5-point total, and the Chicago spread at -2.5.
Money line: MIA (+120) / CHI (-142)
Total Points: 250.5
Spread: +2.5 MIA (-112) / -2.5 CHI (-108)
With White finally back in the lineup, he’s added another scoring threat to this team. His three-pointer has been dropping in his first two games back. Scoring 25 and 27 points in those games shows he hasn’t missed a beat in returning to nearly full minutes. Combine that with the many other shooters on this roster spreading the floor for him, and he should be able to thrive outside again tonight.
This is going to be a game all about speed. Both of these rosters love to push the pace and move, which should work out well for Giddey. When Giddey is leading a transition, he’s been fantastic at finding open shooters and cutters to the hoop. Especially with Miami missing a couple of their forwards, it should only help open the court more and create passing lanes for Giddey to exploit. With Giddey already averaging 9.7 assists a game, the over looks solid again tonight.
The tandem between Bam and Ware has been interesting. It’s allowed both players to thrive, as Ware has taken on more of the traditional center duties away from Bam. While they both get minutes at the five, Ware has been more patient in the paint, which gives him a chance to excel on the boards. He’s already averaging 10 boards per game, with his last six games surpassing this line. Considering that Miami is one of the best rebounding teams in the league, and the Bulls don’t usually focus on offensive boards, Ware should have a clear opportunity to grab 10 or more boards again.
It’s been a mix of hot and cold for Larsson’s scoring this year. With some added range on the court, Larsson has been a little flat for most of November. He’s been below his line in about half of his games this month. However, the Bulls give him a great opportunity to score. With the ability to run the court in transition, Larsson should see a decent shot volume tonight. He’s been taking between 7 and 11 shots a game, which is solid for an 11.5-point spread. He’s also been getting to the line at least once a game. Especially with Jovic, Wiggins, and Herro out tonight, the Heat will need to utilize Larsson, which puts him in a good position to hit the over.