Buddy Hield Probable
Jonathan Kuminga Out
De’Anthony Melton Out
Jalen Suggs Questionable
Moritz Wagner Questionable
Palo Banchero Questionable
The Warriors are on the road facing the Magic in Orlando. While the Warriors have been playing well lately, the Magic have been bouncing back after a slow start. Now back to 500, they’re finally finding their footing as they work through injuries.
While the Magic haven’t been a disaster recently, starting the season 1-5 wasn’t what people expected. However, things are stabilizing as the team gels and the defense they were known for last year gradually returns. The interesting part has been how the team has performed without their star, Paolo Banchero. During that time, they beat the Knicks, Brooklyn, and nearly took down the Rockets. The extra space on the court has given Wagner everything he needs to excel offensively. With Paolo questionable to return tonight, we’ll see if the Wagner show continues. If it does, expect to see plenty of defense. Coming off last season as one of the best defensive cores in the league, they’ve found that gear again. They’ve held their last 6 opponents under 120, with most under 110. If they can do that again while slowing down the Warriors’ pace, they should have a nice advantage. Scoring will be the biggest challenge for Orlando tonight. The three-pointer has just not been consistent, even with the addition of Desmond Bane. The team as a whole is still shooting near the bottom of the league at 33% from beyond the arc. Inside the arc, however, they’re converting at nearly 47%. So, adding the smaller Warriors’ frontcourt will be key in maintaining their offense.
For the Warriors, it’s going to rely on their perimeter scoring as usual. Points have been easy to come by again this year from Curry. Despite being in his late 30s, he’s been lethal from beyond the arc. With the Warriors ranked third in the league for three-point attempts per game, making those will be crucial. Especially with the size disadvantage they’re facing. The Magic have plenty of long, athletic wings to clog the lanes and contest in the paint. So if the ball doesn’t fall from deep, the Warriors are going to struggle tonight.
Overall, this matchup will come down to shooting. If the Warriors can maintain the pace and keep scoring pressure on the Magic, they’ll have a hard time matching them shot for shot. However, with their size inside, the Warriors won't be able to protect the rim tonight. I believe this will ultimately decide the game, along with Orlando's defense. That’s why I’m taking the Magic’s moneyline, the over on the 223.5 points total, and the Orlando spread at +3.5.
Money line: GSW (-162) / ORL (+136)
Total Points: 223.5
Spread: -3.5 GSW (-102) / +ORL (-118)
Wagner has been performing well lately as the leading scorer. He’s been averaging nearly 28 points per game during this recent stretch. The best sign for the over tonight has been Wagner’s shot volume. He’s increased his attempts significantly to nearly 19 shots per game over the last three games. In those games, he hasn’t shot lights out, but it’s been enough. Facing a smaller Golden State squad, he should be able to do it again.
With Paolo absent, da Silva has significantly increased his minutes. During that time, he’s proven he’s worth the playing time. Averaging nearly 50% from the field and rebounding well during his stint, da Silva should see a solid workload tonight. His size and ability to slip into the paint unnoticed will be exactly what the Magic need against the Warriors. As long as he stays on the floor long enough, six boards should be within his reach. He’s achieved that in the last two games, so let's see it happen a third time.
While Podz has been getting a decent amount of minutes this season, nearly 30 per game, he still hasn't been producing at a high level. Averaging 11.9 points a game, he’s been okay, but his scoring volume isn’t where you’d want it to be. He’s consistently below this mark, going under four of the last six games. Facing a team with size like Orlando's doesn’t give much confidence that he’ll be able to bounce back tonight.
While Curry’s role hasn’t necessarily been a playmaker this year, he still has that repertoire to draw from when needed. He’s averaging only 3.7 assists per game, but Orlando offers a great chance to raise that number. The Magic prefer to force players off the perimeter while sacrificing the interior. If Curry gets driven off the arc, he’ll be able to pass to either Butler or Post inside to make high-percentage shots in the paint. The over looks excellent, especially with the favorable odds.