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Zion Williamson Out
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Damian Lillard Out
Portland continues its road trip in New Orleans tonight. After a series of challenging games in Florida, the Blazers leave with two more losses. Despite this, their record stays at 5-5 as they look to rack up a few more wins. For New Orleans, a tough start has only worsened the team's problems. With Zion out again tonight, the roster is searching for someone to step up. So far, we’ve seen Murphy doing his best, but New Orleans's scoring remains too streaky.
For the Pelicans, they need to return to their small-ball lineup with Bey at the five. That lineup was key in helping them secure two wins against Charlotte and Dallas. If they add a bit more shooting, it will open things up for Murphy to make plays. Defensively, they can get a head start as well. While Portland likely has the better overall defense, the Pelicans should be able to defend Portland’s limited ball-handlers. With Henderson, Wesley, and Lillard out, it’s been up to Holiday, Avdija, and Grant to handle the ball, leading to some issues on offense like turnovers and long scoring droughts. Given Portland’s reliance on threes, if those shots aren’t falling, Jones and Murphy may be able to limit the offense from Portland’s forwards. But the biggest priority for the Pelicans is scoring. They’ve shot poorly this season, ranking second-worst in the league from the field, and they also move the ball poorly, sitting last in the NBA in assists per game. Without a true offensive centerpiece, it all comes down to isolation plays.
The Blazers, on the other hand, have been strong. They’ve beaten some tough opponents like Denver and OKC but have struggled on the road. Their road record is just 2-3 this season, coming off a couple of tough losses to Miami and Orlando. Their offense has not been great, though. Defensively, this team can compete with almost anyone, but scoring remains a weakness. The main issue is their reliance on three-pointers. They take 42 threes a game but only convert at a 35% rate. That percentage is highly unpredictable, bouncing between 40% and 20% with little consistency. They truly live and die by the three. However, with their defense holding teams to 85 shots per game and leading the league in opponent turnovers, they are excellent at forcing mistakes. They chase teams off the three-point line and have size to protect the rim. Considering what we’ve seen from the Pelicans’ offense, it might be too much for them to overcome.
Overall, this matchup should be fairly one-sided in favor of Portland. They’ve demonstrated much more talent than New Orleans, especially with Zion out again tonight. With even fewer scoring options than usual, it’s going to be tough against Portland’s defense. That’s why I’m going with the Portland moneyline, the under on the 231.5 points total, and the New Orleans spread at +8.5.
Money line: POR (-345) / NOP (+245)
Total Points: 231.5
Spread: -8.5 POR (-102) / +8.5 NOP (-118)
Avdija remains Portland's only consistent scorer this season. His ability to attack the rim in transition and draw fouls in the half-court has been essential. He’s averaging 25.5 points per game so far, with four of his last five games surpassing this mark. Given the struggles New Orleans has already faced in the paint, Avdija should be able to fill up the box score again tonight.
Queen has quietly improved his scoring as he’s seen his minutes increase. Especially with Zion still sidelined, Queen has been working in the paint. However, with limited range and Portland’s strong post defense, Queen might not find many opportunities. Clingan and Williams on Portland are two tough defenders who will likely cut into Queen’s numbers.
Clingan hasn’t been a player posting double-digit points recently. With his minutes limited to around 25 per game, he’s still averaging about 9 rebounds a game. However, given that the Pelicans have one of the worst shooting rosters in the league, Clingan should get plenty of boards. Since most of those shots come from inside the arc, he should be able to grab 10 rebounds tonight.
Jones has been solid on defense this year. Averaging 1.8 steals per game, the over looks promising given the matchup. With Jones likely guarding Avdija tonight, he should handle the ball most of the time. Even as Portland's top scorer, Avdija tends to be careless with the ball, averaging nearly 4 turnovers per game. Portland's overall lack of ball handlers should give Jones opportunities to intercept a few passes or trap some errant dribbles.