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This is one of the biggest games of the night with OKC facing the Lakers. OKC looks as dangerous as ever even with some early-season injuries. We haven’t seen this full core together at all this year, but with one of the deepest benches in the league, they’ve thrived. With only a single loss this season, the Thunder are still firing on all cylinders. However, that doesn’t mean the Lakers will be a pushover in this game. They’ve been dominating even with Luka in and out of the lineup. When he’s in, it’s been nearly impossible to stop him.
The Lakers have been much more impressive overall than expected. Even a few of their off-season additions like Ayton and Smart have made significant impacts. They’ve provided Luka and Reaves with the space they need to excel. Offensively, the team’s stats aren’t that impressive—they’re middle of the pack in points per game and shooting just 34% from three. However, they’re leading the league in field goal percentage at 51%. That makes sense given the type of scorers Luka and Reaves are—they’re great at driving into the paint, creating space, or moving the ball to the open man. The defensive side has been more of a problem—they’re allowing opposing teams to shoot nearly 50% from the field and 38% from three. This roster isn’t built to stop teams, though; it’s designed to keep the pace and outscore opponents in a slow, iso-driven offense, which they do well. However, OKC will be a whole different challenge.
The Thunder have been one of the most successful two-way teams ever. They dominate on offense and are pests on defense. They are currently fourth in the league for points per game. They’re just not prone to errors overall. They’re one of the best rebounding teams, second to last in turnovers per game, and they avoid fouls reasonably well. Put all of that together with the reigning MVP, and you can see the challenge here. The Lakers are going up against a buzz saw.
This matchup will come down to the Lakers’ pace. They’ve been effective at slowing things down, limiting total shots in the game, and relying on their stars to score they should have a shot. The Lakers are nearly averaging 10 fewer shot attempts per game than OKC. Meanwhile, they hold teams to about 86 shot attempts per game on average. If OKC sticks to this slower pace, they’ll give the Lakers a chance to win. But if they can keep pushing the pace in transition, I don’t see the Lakers pulling it off. That's why I’m betting on the Thunder’s moneyline, the under on 229.5 points total, and the Lakers’ spread at +7.5.
Money line: LAL (+245) / OKC (-305)
Total Points: 229.5
Spread: +7.5 LAL (-102) / -7.5 OKC (-118)
Luka continues to be dominant this season. He’s still averaging 37 points a game with only 2 games this season under this line. He is facing the Thunder, who have been the best defense in basketball, but Luka has been a thorn in their side. With size and strength, he’s one of the few guys who can battle with OKC and still get his foul calls. Averaging 11 free throws a game, this line will depend on him getting those calls. If he finds his way to the line and hits his threes, Luka should have another strong scoring night.
SGA is one of those guys who can’t be stopped on offense. Luckily for him, the Lakers' defense hasn’t been impressive either. With this game likely turning into a physical grind, scoring will be crucial. Given that half of the other main scorers on the team are out or questionable, SGA should handle most of the scoring tonight.
Hartenstein continues to anchor this team in the paint. On the boards, he’s been terrific. Averaging 11 points a game so far this year, he should have a solid chance to hit that again against the Lakers. With the frontcourt for LA not nearly as intimidating offensively as the backcourt, Hartenstein should see an easier defensive assignment tonight. Considering the number of jump shots Luka and Reaves take, Hartenstein should be able to easily clean up the paint tonight.
Reaves and Luka have formed an unstoppable offensive duo. When both are on the court, Reaves has not had fewer than 6 assists in any game this season. Even against a tough defense like OKC, Reaves should be able to leverage Luka’s gravity to create space on offense. If he can draw the defense, he’ll find plenty of open shots for his teammates.