Zach Edey Out
Ty Jerome Out
Scotty Pippen Jr. Out
Brandon Clarke Out
Dante Exum Out
Antyhon Davis Doubtful
Dereck Lively Out
Kyrie Irving Out
Things haven’t been going well for either of these teams early in the year. For the Mavericks, injuries have already decimated their core, leaving Cooper Flagg to figure things out on the fly. With Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively out, the defense has been a struggle. For a team that was supposed to build its entire identity around size and defense, it’s been painful to watch. Sitting at just 2-6 to start the year, the Mavericks are doing everything they can to right the ship before they go under.
The Grizzlies have been experiencing a similar struggle so far. Some early injuries have weakened the core, but it seems internal turmoil is truly causing the issues. Ja Morant has been mysteriously disinterested in the season so far. Having one of his worst starts of his career, low energy has been affecting his games lately. Jogging up the court, no burst off the dribble, and poor shooting have made him an offensive afterthought. Without him dominating the offense and attacking the rim, the Grizzlies are struggling on offense. Jaren Jackson Jr. is doing his best, but with less space on the court and Edey injured, he’s struggled to get it going. The only real bright spot on this team has been their rookie Cedric Coward. He’s started his NBA career off strong, as his shooting has been one of the few offensive positives on the team. But this team still needs to find its swagger again if they’re going to have a chance.
The matchup should favor the Grizzlies tonight, but Dallas seems feisty to me. Jason Kidd has been experimenting early this year, but this is a game they can win. They’ll need to trust their guard rotation, though. Starting Flagg at the PG isn’t ideal, and with D'Angelo Russell on the team, they should delegate some of the workload to him. They have the size to slow down the Grizzlies' offense, and if they can get their offense going, they should be competitive. The Grizzlies will have to win this game through defense. With JJJ, they’re usually solid defensively, but without a true healthy starting 5 right now, it’s going to be tough. They’ll need to protect the rim better tonight, which doesn’t seem likely against the Mavericks. That’s why I’m taking the Mavericks moneyline, the under on the 232.5 points total, and the +4.5 Dallas spread.
Money line: DAL (+150) / MEM (-180)
Total Points: 232.5
Spread: +4.5 DAL (-112) / -4.5 MEM (-108)
Morant has struggled to find much scoring success this season. His effort has been low, the three pointers aren’t landing, and he doesn’t have enough burst to get around defenders. It’s been a sloppy start for the brightest star on the Memphis roster. Ja just hasn’t been a guy to bet on putting up points. Especially going against a big Dallas squad, he’ll likely struggle to find the mark again tonight.
Flagg hasn’t had the explosive start to his career many expected; however, at just 18, that might have been too much to ask. With most of the team's ball handlers out, Flagg has taken on ball carrier duties. It hasn’t quite worked, but Flagg might have an easier time against Memphis tonight. Memphis has struggled to contain wings this year, giving up some major runs early in the season. Flagg should have a solid chance to hit the over tonight.
Coward has been one of the best rookies in this draft class. He’s been a versatile player for Memphis. Rebounding has been one area he’s excelled at early on. With some big games this year, he’s averaging 5.4 rebounds per game. Considering the Grizzlies are still shorthanded at the five spot, and Jackson Jr.'s poor rebounding in general, Coward should have plenty of opportunities to grab boards tonight.