Shaedon Sharpe Probable
Blake Wesley Out
Matisse Thybulle Out
Scoot Henderson Out
Damian Lillard Out
Luguentz Dort Questionable
Jalen Williams Out
Nikola Topic Out
Kenrich Williams Out
Thomas Sorber Out
After another strong win against the Clippers to keep their undefeated streak alive, the Thunder are heading to Portland. It’s a quick turnaround on the road, but if any team is equipped to handle it, it’s OKC. They’ve maintained their elite level of play behind SGA even with some early injuries. However, even missing their second-leading scorer from last year has hardly made a difference. The defense remains solid, and SGA continues to put up incredible scoring nights every game. This team truly looks like a squad that could find their way back to the NBA finals this year.
Portland, on the other hand, has been trying to figure themselves out. They haven't been doing badly with a 4-3 start, but this group is inconsistent. The offense fluctuates wildly from hitting everything to not hitting the side of a barn. It’s been a challenge, especially with another ball handler, Blake Welsey, going down. That basically leaves Jrue Holiday as the only healthy point guard on the team. The 35-year-old PG has done well, but you can only ask so much of one player. The one part of the team you can count on, though, is the defense. Portland has put together a lethal group of wings that can make life hard for anyone. We’ve seen them hamper even some of the strongest teams like Denver. The team has committed to a strong defensive identity, which is already paying off.
This matchup should be an exciting one. Two of the top defensive lineups facing off will likely add some drama. However, it’s tough to see Portland winning this game. Even with OKC on the second night of a back-to-back, they have the better roster. Their talent runs so deep that even if they rest players, someone else steps up. For Portland to stay in this game, they’ll need a stellar night from three-point range. They’ve done it before by shooting over 40%. With their high volume of three-point attempts, that could give them an edge. Still, the consistency we’ve seen from OKC makes them the safer pick. We expect them to score around 118 points tonight, but I doubt Portland can do the same. Unless OKC comes in sluggish, and Portland shoots lights out, the Thunder are currently the better bet. That’s why I’m going with the OKC moneyline, the under on 228.5 points, and OKC at -4.5.
Money line: OKC (-198) / POR (+164)
Total Points: 228.5
Spread: -4.5 OKC (-105) / +4.5 POR (-115)
SGA has continued right where he left off last year. He’s been dominant in scoring this year, averaging 33 points a game so far. With a 50-point game under his belt as well, things look promising for him. However, tonight will be challenging. He’s coming off a game in LA last night and then flew straight to Portland for tonight’s game. Not to mention, Portland’s defense remains strong despite some early-season injuries. With the line set at 31.5, the under seems more likely despite SGA’s scoring ability.
Avdija has been almost the only player keeping the Portland offense together. It’s not because he’s the best scorer, but he takes a high volume of shots. His downhill style and ability to score in transition have kept Portland competitive. Add a couple of threes a game, and Avdija is already averaging 24 points this year. Even against a strong defense like OKC, Avdija will likely be able to get to the line and use his size to attack the rim tonight. The over looks a bit more tempting.
Clingan struggled the other night against the Lakers. Even with most of the Lakers’ stars out for the game, Clingan was getting spun around on defense. In only 18 minutes, Portland decided to go small for the rest of the game. That likely won’t be a luxury they have again tonight. With Chet and Hartenstein, Portland will need a legit 7-footer to lock down the paint. If Clingan can even get 25 minutes tonight, he should be in a great position to grab 9+ boards.
Hartenstein hasn’t been the primary defensive stopper in the middle. It’s been more of Holmgren roaming through the paint, blocking shots and contesting attempts, while Hartenstein stays on the big men. However, I could see Hartenstein getting a few more chances to block shots tonight. Portland’s shooting remains streaky. Especially with a lack of ball handlers currently, expect to see plenty of iso drives from Portland ending in the paint.