Al Horford Out
Alex Toohey Out
Da’Anthony Melton Out
Ryan Dunn Probable
Isaiah Livers Questionable
Jalen Green Out
Dillon Brooks Out
The Suns are heading to the Bay to face the Warriors. After a rough start, the Suns have secured a few wins recently. This team has the potential to be something interesting; it just hasn’t come together yet. After a solid draft this year, selecting Rasheer Fleming and Khaman Maluach, they traded for Mark Williams on the same night. Then, moving KD to the Rockets for Green and Brooks, this team looks very different from last year. They added size and defense while keeping some of their offensive power centered around Booker. However, this is a team that’s still growing, not necessarily built to win now. With Booker still in his prime, they can be dangerous any night.
For the Warriors, they’ve stumbled a bit out of the gates, but they look good. Curry continues to dominate, and the pairing of Butler and Green remains strong. Even some role players like Kuminga and Post have improved. You can see the potential for this team, but I have doubts about how well they’re executing that vision. They’ve already been relying heavily on Curry this year. The 37-year-old still carries much of the offense most nights, with Butler providing support. Kuminga has had some solid games, but overall, this team feels thin. The bench depth doesn’t give me confidence, especially with Horford already missing multiple games. With a small, thin roster, it’s a lot to ask of the starters at this stage of their careers.
This is going to be a more interesting matchup than the books are giving credit. The Suns aren’t the tired team they trotted out last year; they have a chip on their shoulder. None more than Booker. He’s been electric this year, averaging 30 points a game on incredible shooting splits. He’s keeping the offense alive as this team starts to come together. Pair that with Dunn becoming a solid point-of-attack defender, and this team has some teeth. If they can come out and hit at a high rate from three again, they’ll challenge this Golden State team. After shooting over 50% from three against the Spurs the other night, we know they can. It’s just whether they can pull it off on the road.
The biggest advantage for the Warriors tonight is their home court. They’ve been dominant at home for years, and this season is no different. They continue to harness the energy of the crowd to find success. However, I’m not so sure they’ll have it tonight. I’m concerned about their size and perimeter defense. That’s why I’m going with the Suns moneyline, the over on the 233.5 points, and the +10.5 spread for Phoenix.
Money line: PHO (+270) / GSW (-340)
Total Points: 233.5
Spread: +10.5 PHO (-102) / -10.5 GSW (-118)
This is one of those games where Booker will have to do nearly everything offensively. With Green out and the rest of the roster struggling on that end, Booker will likely take over with 20+ attempts tonight. Since he’s still shooting at a high percentage, the over looks very tempting. He’s only gone under this line twice so far, and the Warriors aren’t the best perimeter defense in the league either. As long as Booker isn’t ice-cold from three, he should push past the over again.
Butler has been consistently around 20 points per game. Some nights he’s slightly above, other nights slightly below. Tonight, he should be able to exploit this Phoenix defense with no Dillon Brooks. All Butler needs to do is find his spot in the post and get shots at the rim. He’s been effective either by hitting the short midrange shots or drawing fouls. He’s already averaging 8.4 free throw attempts per game, which has been a steady boost to his offense. The over looks like a solid bet again for him.
While the offense runs through Curry, he hasn’t been the playmaker he once was. There are two main reasons for that. The first is the shooters on this team. The Warriors just don’t have the same type of catch-and-shoot players they used to. The second is Butler. His iso-style offense doesn’t generate many assists. Put those two together, and you can see why Curry is only averaging 4.4 assists per game. With the Suns likely vulnerable to Butler’s offense, and Curry probably having plenty of space to shoot, I doubt Curry gets 5 assists tonight.
Williams has been inconsistent on the boards this year. As the starting center, he hasn’t been getting many minutes. Averaging around 24 minutes per game, he still grabs about 9 rebounds a game. Especially against a smaller Warriors team, Williams should be able to rack up assists quickly. Especially with Horford out tonight, Quinten Post will be the only size in the paint for GS.