Matisse Thybulle Out
Shaedon Sharpe Probable
Robert Williams Questionable
Kris Murray Questionable
Scoot Henderson Out
Damian Lillard Out
Jamal Murray Questionable
Cameron Johnson Probable
Denver continues their hot start to the season in Portland while facing one of the league's best defensive teams. As a top contender to win the West this year, Denver has a target on their back. Opponents step up against the Nuggets and Jokic, and Portland will be no different.
This is a prove-it game for Portland. Their season has started strong, with a solid defensive identity. They can compete with just about any team. The offense has been the main question mark and the key limiting factor. That will be their biggest challenge when Denver comes to town. Since most of their offense relies heavily on the three-point shot, they’ll need to hit those to have a chance in this game.
For Denver, this is a game they must control. They are the better team tonight, but if they’re sloppy, Portland can definitely strike back. Their focus will be on maintaining their pace. Their half-court offense is far superior to Portland's and will be their best weapon to control the game’s tempo. If they let Portland get into transition offense, it will significantly cut into their offensive edge. Fortunately for Denver, they have the best half-court player in the world in Jokic. His all-around ability will be crucial tonight against Portland’s long, athletic lineups. Passing lanes will be tight, it’s going to be a physical game, and in the end, Jokic will need to carry most of the offensive load.
For Portland, this game will be an uphill battle. They’ll need to turn defense into offense. If they rush passing lanes, move in transition, and seal off the paint, they should even things up. Clingan is going to be extra important in controlling the paint and limiting Jokic inside the arc. It’s almost impossible to stop him, but at 7’3, he should be able to at least stand with him and make life a little more complicated.
Overall, this matchup favors Denver. They have a much more mature team with more scoring options. Portland will be a nuisance, but as long as they don’t let Portland get into this game, they should stay in control. That’s why I’m taking the Denver moneyline, the under on the 238.5 points total, and the Nuggets spread at -4.5.
Money line: DEN (-205) / POR (+170)
Total Points: 238.5
Spread: -4.5 DEN (-115) / +4.5 POR (-105)
Holiday continues to be the veteran leadership Portland has needed. He’s been reliable and effective on both ends of the court this year. The scoring has come as a bit of a surprise, though, as he’s averaging 19.6 points a game on solid shooting splits. As long as the three-ball is falling like it has, 17 points looks right in Holiday’s wheelhouse.
Gordon may have had one of the most surprising 50-point games on record. Shooting an incredible 10/11 from three, Gordon has proven to be a real clutch shooter. With Portland’s defense likely focusing on Murray and Jokic tonight, Gordon should get plenty of chances in the dunker spot and the corner. Even though Gordon has struggled in the last couple of games, this seems like the perfect bounce-back opportunity for him to shine.
The defense has focused on Clingan this year in Portland, and it’s been effective. With solid rim protection numbers, Clingan has been thriving in the post, but that hasn’t translated into rebounds. Portland boasts a strong trio of rebounders in Clingan, Avdija, and Camara, leading to a more balanced distribution. Especially with Jokic to worry about, Clingan will probably be more focused on slowing him down than grabbing defensive boards tonight. The under looks excellent.
Jokic has been as good as ever at creating opportunities for his teammates. He is already averaging 11 assists a game and hasn’t had a game with fewer than 10 assists yet. However, that might change tonight. Portland will have the toughest defense Jokic has faced this year, with loads of players willing to jump passing lanes. Combine that with strong rim protection and defenders who contest the perimeter well, and it should limit Jokic's assist numbers.