LeBron James Out
Adou Thiero Out
Maxi Kleber Out
None
After a tough loss to Golden State in their season opener, the Lakers hope to bounce back; however, Minnesota is not going to make it easy. These two teams are very well acquainted after a tough playoff series last year. The Wolves ended up winning that one in five, but with some new faces on the Lakers, they’re looking to flip the script.
The Lakers did almost everything they could against the Warriors, but it wasn’t enough. Both Luka and Reaves played well; this roster is just thin without LeBron. They were looking for any spark on the team. Starting with Gabe Vincent, but quickly switching to Jarred Vanderbilt. After that, they tried Smart, who seemed to fit in. But that’s not a good sign. Smart was able to give them more energy on defense, but he isn’t doing much on offense. They had to rely on Luka for 41 minutes just to keep the scoring close. They currently don’t have a simple solution to fix this rotation.
For the Timberwolves, that’s music to their ears. With some strong defenders to throw at Luka and Reaves, they’ll be able to ignore half the Lakers lineup. With Edwards looking fantastic already and a much more rounded team, this Wolves group looks great again. You don’t make it back-to-back Western Conference finals without being a good team, though. With depth, shooting, and defense, the Lakers are going to have a hard time against the Wolves again.
Overall, this matchup is going to be about shooting, like it was in the playoffs last year. The Timberwolves rely heavily on the three-point shot to keep their offense moving. In the playoffs, they were devastating shooters, and they only lost one game when the three dried up. With Edwards already having a monster shooting night against Portland, the Lakers should be worried. If they’re hitting at around a 38% rate tonight, I don’t see a way the Lakers stay in it. If the Lakers can put pressure on the perimeter without letting the interior collapse, they might have a chance. However, I’m very skeptical of this Lakers lineup. They have the star power to keep it close, but not enough support behind them to win this one. That’s why I’m going with the Minnesota moneyline, the over on the 225.5 points total, and the Timberwolves spread at -2.5.
Money line: MIN (-130) / LAL (+110)
Total Points: 225.5
Spread: -2.5 MIN (-105) / +2.5 LAL (-115)
Never underestimate Edwards, because he exploded in Game One against Portland. Despite a strong defensive effort from the Trail Blazers, Edwards finished with 41 points. Now, on his way to LA, he’ll face a much weaker defense. Since Edwards is the type of player who always gets up for prime-time games, his over looks like a great bet again tonight.
Randle had a decent season opener, but I could see him elevate against the Lakers. He barely hit the over against Portland in game one, but I’m looking back at his playoff games against LA last year. He was a solid scorer and was only under this line once in the five-game series. His regular-season games against LAL also looked solid. Since they’ll be without LeBron for this game, Randle might have some extra space down low, especially with Ayton as the primary post defender.
The under on Reaves is looking excellent tonight. Reaves has consistently struggled against the Wolves. Looking at the nine games he played against Minnesota last year, he only hit the over on this line once. Even though he had a solid season opener, I don’t see him winning as much against this defense. Minnesota just isn’t a good matchup for Reaves.
This will be a challenging game for Hachimura. With so much size on Minnesota, he’s going to have a big role on defense. Playing small forward with Vanderbilt at the power forward spot, Rui is likely to be pulled out of the paint to defend on the perimeter. Combine that with Reaves and Doncic looking for rebounds to set up fast breaks, and I don’t see Hachimura hitting this number. There is just too much competition for boards in the starting lineup, and Rui has more important priorities on the court.