Jalen Williams Out
Cason Wallace Questionable
Luguentz Dort Questionable
Isaiah Joe Out
Alex Caruso Out
Nikola Topic Out
Thomas Sorber Out
Quenton Jackson Out
Kam Jones Out
TJ McConnell Out
Tyrese Haliburton Out
It’s only been a couple of months since these teams played, but since then we’ve seen some big changes. Of course, the Pacers will be without Haliburton the entire season after he tore his Achilles in game seven of the finals. The Pacers also lost longtime center Myles Turner to free agency. This is a very different-looking Pacers than the Cinderella story we watched nearly steal the NBA title. However, that doesn’t mean they’re bad.
The Pacers have an interesting lineup of players. With some top-tier athletes, they’ll be able to run on teams. Plus, with Siakam in the middle, they’ll have the veteran presence to keep the team grounded. They’re certainly not as talented as last year, but this is still a dangerous team, even for OKC. We’ve seen that anyone on this roster, whether it’s Mathurin, Nembhard, or Nesmith, can all go off. The depth of this team has always been its superpower. However, one area where the Pacers might struggle is at the center position, with Isaiah Jackson stepping in as the starting center. Jackson is already undersized for the position and lacks the three-point shooting ability Turner had. That might mean we’ll see the Pacers go small early, running Siakam at the 5 spot. Or we might see some time for Jay Huff, who had a solid year in Memphis last season as a rotational big. Whatever the case, that’s going to be the biggest hole this team has to deal with this season.
OKC is in a similar boat, being a bit banged up this season. Losing Caruso to a concussion will significantly impact the OKC bench. With several other bench playmakers out, the Thunder will need to stagger playmakers tonight. This is especially important if they plan to attack Indiana's weak post game. They'll need strong performances from Hartenstein and Holmgren. If they can dominate down low, the team should be in a good position. However, the game will primarily revolve around SGA, as it usually does for the Thunder. It will be interesting to see if the Pacers go small early to bother SGA without reliable big men. Still, SGA averaged 30 points against Indiana in the finals, so he's likely to be a key factor regardless.
This matchup is going to be interesting, but it’s hard to see an angle that the Pacers can take this one. It will be the home opener for Indiana, which should give the team a little more drive, but the talent of these teams is too lopsided. Indiana lost talent, while OKC has only grown. In a perfect world without injuries, this would be one of the most interesting games of the month, but alas, here we are. So that’s why I’m taking the OKC moneyline, the over on the 231.5 points total, and the OKC -7.5 spread.
Money line: OKC (-305) / IND (+245)
Total Points: 231.5
Spread: -7.5 OKC (-110) / +7.5 IND (-110)
Mathurin was the wild card last year in the Pacers’ offense. He didn’t quite fit the fast pace and quick ball movement of the starting lineup. He tends to slow the game down and create his own offense. That wasn’t ideal, but now, missing most of the offensive weapons from last year, Mathurin’s ability to attack the rim could be invaluable. He had a few impressive games against OKC in the finals last year, so I expect he’ll see plenty of opportunities to attack again tonight.
Chet played well in game one, scoring 28 points against Houston in the season opener. His three-point shot was falling, which has been a much-needed addition to his game. Considering Indiana is now without Turner in the post, the lane should be even more open for Holmgren tonight compared to Houston. At just 17.5 points, the over looks like the best bet.
Nembhard has been named the Pacers' starting point guard this year. With McConnell and Haliburton out, he’ll be responsible for most of the playmaking. However, that hasn’t been Nembhard’s role in the NBA so far. He’s only ever averaged 5 assists per game at best in a season. Of course, he’ll have more opportunities as the lead ball handler tonight, but setting the line at 7.5 feels a bit too high. Coming out and grabbing 8 assists against OKC, of all teams, is going to be tough. On other days against weaker opponents, Nembhard can definitely reach this number, but tonight, the under is the smarter choice.
Wallace continues to increase his importance on this team. Not only has he become a decent defender, but he’s also one of the best three-point shooters on OKC. With some other injuries taking players like Caruso out for the game, Wallace should see some extra time on the court, along with a few more attempts. As a nearly 39% career three-point shooter, all Wallace needs are attempts to challenge this line. The over looks like an easy move, especially with plus odds attached.