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Alex Toohey Out
Moses Moody Out
De’Anthony Melton Out
Denver begins their 2025-26 season in Golden State. After some key off-season moves, the Nuggets are now one of the favorites in the West, and for good reason. They proved they could hang with OKC last year in the playoffs. With some important bench additions and a new starter, they could be one of the most formidable teams in the league.
First of all, Denver adding Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, and Cameron Johnson all on the cheap was incredible work. They managed to add depth to nearly every position on the court. That’s going to be important this season as injuries have been a common issue for Denver. However, for this game, these new additions make the Nuggets dangerous. First of all, Denver just has size that Golden State can’t match. That’s not even talking about Jokic, who no one can match, but Johnson, Valanciunas, and Holmes give this team something extra. A level of confidence in the post that is hard to come by right now. For a team like Golden State, who is starting a 39-year-old big man, this could be an issue. Especially with the backcourt situation also looking dangerous. Healthy Murray and Christian Braun are going to be a tough duo for the Warriors. Though, that doesn’t mean Golden State is going to be an easy game.
The Warriors have some key advantages themselves, none more potent than Curry. The man is still looking unstoppable even in his late 30s. Pairing that with Butler’s ability to get to the line and attack the rim looks like a nightmare for teams defensively. On the other end of the court, Butler and Green were one of the best defensive duos in the post. Even though they lack the size of most NBA front courts, they’re still not allowing easy conversions at the rim. Overall, this group is tough.
This matchup will be primarily about post play. If Butler can get to the line or the rim like he did against the Lakers, Denver could be in trouble. However, that seems less likely. With Aaron Gordon likely guarding him, he’ll face a much better defender tonight. Still, Curry’s shooting is just something you can’t do much about. So if he’s hot, this game could turn into a rock fight. The Nuggets still feel like the better team, though. They have Jokic, which Golden State struggled to stop last season. He scored over 30 points in both games last year. With a healthy roster, a solid bench, and the best player in the world, getting Denver as an underdog is too tempting. That’s why I’m going with the Nuggets moneyline, the over on 233.5 points, and Denver’s spread at +2.5.
Money line: DEN (+110) / GSW (-130)
Total Points: 233.5
Spread: +2.5 DEN (-118) / -2.5 GSW (-102)
Butler had an incredible game one against the Lakers. He was dominating inside and getting to the line at will. Although the Nuggets should have better interior defense, Butler's ability to get to the line is how he manufactures his points. With Curry drawing so much defensive attention, I doubt Butler will have trouble getting to his spot in the interior again tonight. The over feels like the value play here.
Gordon is usually a player we see pushing in transition for the Nuggets, but tonight I think he’ll be more focused in the post. Likely matching up with Butler on defense, he’ll probably be involved in a gritty battle down low. Still, that should keep him close to the rim and in position to fight for rebounds. With Gordon often grabbing a few offensive boards, he should finish around six rebounds tonight.
Jokic is consistently a dominant force in filling the box score, but this rebounding number seems a bit too high. The Golden State offense will likely try to pull Jokic out of the paint on defense while running small. Even with Al Horford, the Warriors should be able to spread the floor, moving Jokic out and creating space for Butler to operate inside. Either way, the line feels a little inflated for this matchup.
Kuminga had a good game to start the season, but that was against the Lakers, who aren’t known for having the best defense. Now, facing a lineup with some size and strong defenders, I don’t see Kuminga thriving. He’s already been inconsistent in the Golden State offense for years, but he just doesn’t fit the style of play. When his three-pointer is falling, like it was against LA, it looks good, but as a 33% career three-point shooter, that’s an outlier. I think we’ll regress back to the mean tonight and won’t have the driving lanes to score at the rim. The under is the move here.