Dorian Finney-Smith Out
Fred VanVleet Out
Nikola Topic Out
Alex Caruso Questionable
Isaiah Joe Questionable
Ajay Mitchell Questionable
Jalen Williams Questionable
Thomas Sorber Out
Two of the most anticipated teams clash early this season, with Houston making the short trip over to OKC. The reigning NBA champions are back with nearly the same roster, plus some rookie additions. However, some early-season injuries have already appeared, none more notable than losing the 15th pick in the draft, Thomas Sorber, to a torn ACL that will keep him out all season. With a few other less serious injuries, players like Nikola Topic, Alex Caruso, and Jalen Williams are nursing injuries, so this team is coming in a little slower. That’s not to say they’re not the favorites in this game. Nope, with SGA leading the way and one of the best defenses in the league, OKC is still going to be tough.
Houston is going to be a tough challenge for them. Adding Kevin Durant in the off-season has given this team a different level they didn’t have last year. With scoring as one of the biggest weaknesses, KD can single-handedly boost the team’s scoring ability. They also have a strong defensive core around KD, including Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr., and Steven Adams. Not to mention, the post scoring threat of Alperen Sengun makes this team even more dangerous this year. However, they weren’t able to avoid early-season injuries, with Fred VanVleet tearing his ACL in preseason. With VanVleet out, much of the point guard minutes will fall to second-year player Reed Sheppard. That situation is concerning, but after a strong preseason, there’s reason to be optimistic about him. Overall, this group looks ready to make a serious push in the West.
The clash between these two should be interesting. There probably isn’t a team in the NBA better constructed to challenge OKC. Houston has a flurry of defenders to toss at SGA, and slow him down as much as possible. Amen Thompson could be the game-changer that finally makes him look mortal. In general, the Houston defense is going to be the x-factor in this game. If they’re able to effectively contest the perimeter while forcing them to avoid giving up points at the rim, they should be fine. The number of solid perimeter defenders on the Houston roster should make it challenging for OKC. Sheppard is going to be the biggest question mark offensively. He’ll be the number one target for switches by OKC. For OKC, they’ve just got to keep the scoring pressure high by moving in transition and hitting their outside shots. This is looking like a close game, but one that OKC should win. They have the deeper, stronger offensive roster. I think we’ll see Houston keep it close, but OKC doesn’t lose at home, and with a young, hungry championship roster, I don’t see that changing tonight. So I’m taking the OKC moneyline on this one, the under on the 227.5 points total, and the Houston spread at +7.5.
Money line: HOU (+250) / OKC (-310)
Total Points: 227.5
Spread: +7.5 HOU (-105) / -7.5 OKC (-115)
With VanVleet out, it’s a bit unclear what Sheppard's role will be this year. As one of the only healthy point guards on the team, he’ll likely have his role elevated early. During preseason, they ran a lot of offense through him, with him having the green light from beyond the arc. He took 13 three-pointers in 29 minutes in their last preseason game. He probably won’t have that volume again tonight, but he should still have plenty of opportunities. As one of the few floor spacers on the roster, he should see a good number of attempts, making this line valuable.
Thompson has made significant progress in his scoring ability. He had some impressive games last year and a few solid preseason performances recently. However, facing OKC with a questionable jump shot doesn’t give me much confidence. Thompson might struggle to find high-quality shots at the rim or midrange tonight, which could reduce his scoring. I’d expect him to focus more on defense while the offense runs through Sengun, KD, and Sheppard tonight.
Hartenstein was one of the most important pieces for OKC’s run to the championship last year. His ability to set up in the post, protect the rim, and secure boards was critical. Now, going against Houston with loads of size, Hartenstein should see plenty of time on the court tonight. Especially with Hartenstein averaging nearly 11 rebounds a game last year, I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon.
With no Fred VanVleet, Durant is the natural next man up to take on some of the playmaking responsibilities. He’s never been known for his passing ability, but as a seasoned vet, he has it in his skill set. He averaged over 4 assists a game last year on a much weaker Phoenix roster. If Durant can effectively feed the post in motion, he should be able to meet this line.