With just a week left before the season starts, the preseason is wrapping up. Many teams are already rested their starters, and this game is no exception. Most of the Warriors' starters will sit out tonight, and a few Portland players are also out. Still, there’s some value in this game after an exciting matchup between these two earlier in the season.
Toumani Camara Questionable
Matisse Thybulle Questionable
Robert Williams Questionable
Scoot Henderson Out
Jimmy Butler Out
Draymond Green Out
Moses Moody Out
Seth Curry Out
De’Anthony Melton Out
We’re so close, yet so far from the start of the NBA season. Luckily, we still have some preseason action to keep things interesting. As we reach the end of preseason, this game will mainly feature the young players and the bench. Most of the veteran starters are already sitting out. It looks like we’ll see a bit of Curry, but no Butler or Green for this one. That’s okay, though; the Warriors’ bench has been at least entertaining during preseason. They scored 51 points in the 4th quarter against Portland when they last played. On the other end, Portland is full of young talent eager for minutes, which should keep the game lively all night.
The Warriors are definitely in an interesting spot in this game. They’ll probably start Curry, Podziemski, Kuminga, Post, and Jackson-Davis. Not the best lineup, but it should be fun. Kuminga alone has been a real wildcard on this team. This group should at least score a lot of points. On the other hand, defensively, things might be a bit rough. Kuminga has been a big issue for the Warriors on defense. He’s often missing assignments and leaving open spaces. He can improve some of this with his athleticism, but it’ll be interesting to see if he’s focused tonight. Besides Kuminga, with Green and Butler out, the inside game will likely be wide open, especially if Horford doesn’t play extended minutes, which seems unlikely for the 39-year-old. No matter how you look at it, this will be an interesting glimpse into the Warriors’ deep bench.
For Portland, it seems like we'll see more of their starters tonight. With only a few names on the report, it’s clear they’re using the preseason to gather as much data as possible. Since Portland lost their leading scorer in a trade for Jrue Holiday, this offense has been completely overhauled. Most of the flow goes through transition with Deni Avdija handling the ball or Shaedon Sharpe in the half court, which has led to some growing pains. However, we’ve seen impressive growth in a relatively short period. On the other hand, their defense already looks top-notch. In their starting lineup, they could very well have three players with a case for making the All-Defensive team this year. We’ll see how they hold up tonight against a gritty Warriors group.
Overall, the matchup looks fairly even, if not slightly leaning towards Portland. With the Warriors resting starters and likely giving Curry only a short run, Portland should have the talent to keep up. In their first meeting, Portland dominated the entire game until the deep bench was blown out in the fourth quarter. If they’re able to keep the shooting levels high and leave the starters in a little longer tonight, I don’t see them having a hard time against the Warriors. That’s why I’m leaning toward the Blazers moneyline, the under on the 235.5 points total, and the +2 spread on Portland.
Money line: GSW (-125) / POR (+105)
Total Points: 235.5
Spread: -2 GSW (-110) / +2 POR (-110)
This early in the season, it’s hard to tell exactly how much offense Shaedon will generate, but if the preseason is any indication, it will be a lot. Sharpe has had a green light throughout the preseason to shoot whatever he wants. With a focus on hitting from beyond the arc, Sharpe has been a reliable option for a couple of threes in a game. Even if the odds slip a bit on him, it’s not a bad line for preseason.
Even though we’ve seen most of the veteran players sitting on the bench for this game, Holiday should still get some playing time. It looks like coach Billups wants to maximize the time with Sharpe and Holiday on the court together. The connection between the two already looks solid, but if he stays on the court like he did against the Kings, 10 points is well within reach. Expect to see Holiday get his touches early in this game, especially with no Green or Butler tonight.
Podziemski has had the most minutes as a starter by far this preseason. With Curry limiting his time, Butler and Green both out tonight, Podz is going to get plenty of shots. In their last preseason game he played over 20 minutes and scored 23 points on 16 attempts. As long as Kerr gives him a run like that again, 12 points are well within reach.