The NBA season may still be weeks away, but action has already kicked off at DraftKings with a new batch of regular-season win total futures. Every team’s projected number is available, from the title contenders Nuggets and Thunder to rebuilding squads aiming to surpass expectations. In this breakdown, we’ll review each team’s latest DraftKings projections, pointing out where the value is, which teams are set to hit the over, and which might fall short.
Starting with the Thunder winning the title and ending the regular season with 68 wins, even after all that success and some roster changes, DraftKings has lowered their total to 62.5. That does seem like a fair drop, considering the strength of the Western Conference right now. Few teams enter this season expecting to tank, and more talent is also moving into the Western Conference.
Despite all that, it’s very likely the OKC will continue to dominate the competition this year. With an elite defense and a core of players that’s still improving, it’s hard to see many weaknesses. Featuring the reigning MVP, multiple All-Defense players, and some All-Stars, this team is stacked. Expect them to thrive again in another turbulent season in the Western Conference.
Cleveland was the surprise of the East last year. They stormed through the regular season to secure the top spot with 64 wins. Unfortunately, that success didn’t carry over to the playoffs, where the Pacers eliminated them in the second round. However, that doesn’t mean this is a bad team. With Evan Mobley as the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and Donovan Mitchell leading the way, the potential for this team is high. The challenges for this group stem from injuries. Max Strus and Darius Garland will likely miss the start of the season, if not longer. That will put a lot of pressure on the remaining players and reduce the team’s depth.
However, in the East, I’m not that worried about the Cavs. Even with early injuries, they’ll have De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome filling the gaps, both of whom are confident veteran players at this point. Considering the other additions to the roster like Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr., this team should still look fine in a weak Eastern Conference. With the future line set at 56.5, the over is looking solid for one of the best teams in the conference.
Houston made some big moves this offseason after an embarrassing first-round exit. Adding Kevin Durant, this team looked poised to be a real threat in the West this year. Only losing Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green, the Rockets managed to bring KD in without touching their core players. With some of the best defenders in the league on this roster, it’s a perfect pairing of elite offense from KD and excellent team defense surrounding him. But with the news of Fred VanVleet tearing his ACL, the team's trajectory has shifted a bit. Without their go-to playmaker and best guard, Houston's offense might struggle out of the gates.
With no public plans to replace VanVleet through a trade, the Rockets will have to rely on Reed Sheppard or run their offense through the front court. Sengun, Thompson, and KD can all create for others, but with such a gap at PG, I’m not very confident in this group early this year. They’re still going to win a bunch of games, but I think they’ll fall short of 54 wins this year.
Denver had a strong offseason this year, following its 50-win season last year. The Nuggets are now deeper and have one of the best starting lineups in the league. They even made massive strides in improving their bench, which was a major concern last year. They added Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Cameron Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas, elevating their depth tremendously. These moves alone have made Denver one of the West's favorites behind Nikola Jokic.
Considering Denver managed to reach 50 wins last year despite going through turmoil, it bodes well for this team. Now with one of the deepest lineups in the league and the best basketball player in the world, they should dominate this season. Setting the total at 54.5 is a bit high, but I think they’ll get there. The over looks like the right move for Denver this year.
The Knicks nearly reached the finals last year, but the Pacers prevented them from doing so. However, with a new head coach and another year for this core to gel, they could have another strong season. Especially since the competition in the East is already limited, the Knicks are one of the few teams not dealing with injuries. With the starting lineup still among the best in the league, this team should be able to dominate again this season. They had 51 wins last year, and since the East is even more depleted of talent, 54 wins seem very achievable.
My only concerns about the Knicks are related to health. They have very limited meaningful depth on the team, with backups like Delon Wright, Miles McBride, Landry Shamet, Josh Hart, and Mitchell Robinson. If the Knicks lose anyone for a significant period this season, they have very few options to replace them. Despite that, I still think the team looks much more appealing overall.
Orlando is a challenging team this year. They made a major trade in the offseason, acquiring Desmond Bane, who should greatly boost their shooting. Pairing him with Jalen Suggs gives the Magic a strong backcourt. Overall, this starting lineup seems formidable with Banchero and Wagner alongside them. Last year, before suffering numerous injuries, they were on pace to be one of the top teams in the East. They even finished with one of the league's best all-around defenses. There is a very strong case that the Magic will compete in the East.
However, with them winning only 41 games last year, making a 10-game jump this year seems somewhat ambitious. With similar injury concerns this year and this team being so defensively oriented, I’m not sure if they have enough firepower to reach 50+ wins. The under looks a bit safer considering how young this group still is, and without seeing the team’s fit around Bane.
The Timberwolves continue to be one of the most entertaining teams in the West, but they weren’t able to get over the hump. Still, reaching the Western Conference finals two years in a row is no small feat. The talent on this team is impressive. They managed to keep Julius Randle, and Naz Reid helps keep this group competitive, only losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the offseason. Considering this is essentially the same team, it’s no surprise that the books set the line at 49.5 wins, which is 0.5 more than their total of 49 wins last year.
It’s quite difficult to see how they could pick up more games this year, though. With much of the West improving this season, there are almost no easy games. Of course, we’ll likely see one or two teams drop off early, but still, the West is probably going to be 11 teams deep. It’s going to be tough, even for strong teams like Minnesota, to gather more than 50 wins.
The Clippers are entering this season already under scrutiny due to recent controversies surrounding the team. Even if nothing results from those issues, this team still feels potentially vulnerable. They had a decent off-season, adding Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, John Collins, and Brooke Lopez, which should bring some much-needed depth. It’s the age of this core that concerns me. Most of the minutes will be played by players in their mid-30s. Not that those guys can’t play, but relying on this core to stay healthy for 82 games seems like a recipe for disaster. Given the team’s past mentality, they’ll likely aim to enter the playoffs healthy, which raises questions about their win total.
On the flip side, they won 50 games last year with a weaker roster. So, there’s a chance they could do it again. However, considering this year's competition, I don’t see them keeping pace with some of the younger teams. The under on this one really seems like the safe bet this year.
Atlanta had one of the best offseasons in the league this year. They added value everywhere to a roster that had some bright spots last year. Even though they fell well short of this number with just 40 wins last season, they’ll have much more help. Adding Porzingis, Luke Kennard, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to this group brings a nice variety of skills. With Jalen Johnson back after a season-ending injury last year, Atlanta's defense could be elite. Combining NAW, Porzingis, Johnson, and Dyson Daniels could form one of the most effective perimeter defensive groups in the NBA. With Trae Young’s scoring ability and playmaking, it’s easy to see how this team could make a big leap this season.
They will need to stay healthy, as health has held them back before. If they’re at least 80% healthy this year, reaching 48 games should be possible. Considering they played 40 games last season despite injuries, betting on 48 wins for this team seems like a solid prediction.
The Lakers are one of the most challenging teams this year. Of course, the duo of Luka and LeBron is among the best we’ve seen. However, there are still some clear gaps and uncertainties that the team didn’t address this offseason. The biggest problem is defense. They lost Dorian Finney-Smith, who was one of their top defenders, for nothing. They did add DeAndre Ayton for a low cost, which should improve their post game somewhat, but defensively, he’s never been dependable. That puts a huge weight on LeBron and Rui Hachimura. With those two as the main defensive players, this team is going to give up a lot of points.
My biggest concern with this team still revolves around LeBron's age. At some point, this man will appear mortal, and if that happens this year, I don’t believe the Lakers have an answer. With LeBron turning 41 this December, I’m worried about the long-term competitiveness of this roster. Aiming for a slight decline in wins this season seems like the smart move given the state of the roster.
Golden State concerns me most in the West for a potential decline this season. They’re relying heavily on three players, all in their mid or late 30s. With the surrounding cast looking average at best, they didn't make many moves in the offseason. They did manage to sign Al Horford in free agency, but the 39-year-old can only do so much now. Still, this team is dangerous, built around Butler and Curry. Both are more than capable of taking over games night after night. It's just whether they can do it for 82 games.
When the Warriors lost Curry last year, the team nearly collapsed late in the season. Then, in the playoffs, when he went down, they were demolished by the Timberwolves in the second round. Considering the current state of the Western Conference and the risk of injuries, the under is a strong choice against the Warriors this year.
Detroit is one of those teams I expect to be on the bubble this year. After an electrifying season from Cunningham, this team finally looked dangerous. That was even without Jaden Ivey for most of the season. This group thrived on physical, smashmouth basketball, which significantly improved their defense. Still, there are many questions surrounding this team, with shooting being one of the biggest concerns. With Malik Beasley presumably gone, the Pistons added vets Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert to fill the gap. Robinson and Ivey will likely help address the shooting issues, but beyond them, this team is still limited in scoring, even with Cade averaging nearly 25 points a game.
The 46-win mark does seem achievable for the team, though. After another season together, more experience, and a weaker conference, they managed to reach 44 wins last year with Boston and Indiana at their peak powers. I think we’ll see another year of improvement from Detroit, which should push them over the line.
The Bucks are definitely in one of the most unique spots in the league. After losing Lillard and Lopez this season, the Bucks operated on a shoestring budget to build a team around Giannis. They did manage to get Myles Turner to replace Lopez, but the backcourt situation remains challenging in Milwaukee. They’ll be running out Gary Trent Jr., Gary Harris, Cole Anthony, and Kevin Porter Jr. as their primary guards. Not that any of those guys are terrible, but as your main guards, this is one of the weakest rotations in the league. That just leaves Kuzma to cover the SF, and you can quickly see the holes on this team. There’s a chance things come together, and having Giannis on your team is a cheat code for wins, but will it be enough?
They managed to secure 48 wins last year, but I wouldn’t call their current situation better. However, the East will be weaker itself, so this line is an absolute toss-up. My gut is leaning towards the over, though. It’s hard to vote against Giannis, especially if the Turner-Giannis front court works out. Either way, this team might not be a championship-level group, but they’re good enough to squeak over 44, in my opinion.
San Antonio continues to capitalize on their luck. By selecting Dylan Harper with the second pick in the draft and securing a solid defender in Carter Bryan at 13, this team is stacked with young talent. The backcourt is impressive. They added De’Aaron Fox last season, along with rookie of the year Castle, and still have Devin Vassell. The only challenge might be figuring out playing time in this backcourt. Even then, it hardly matters when you have Wembanyama on the team. He’s the true game-changer, but also the biggest concern. He missed most of last season with deep vein thrombosis, playing only 46 games. Part of that seems like the Spurs being extra cautious or tanking to improve their draft position. Either way, Wemby may have missed more games than necessary, but he still remains uncertain.
Overall, this will be a tough one to call. If Wemby is available for at least 70ish games, the Spurs will fly past this line. Even if he misses 30 games, the talent on this team seems strong enough to earn some wins. The over is looking great on this line.
Last year was a whirlwind of emotions for the 76ers. With Paul George and Embiid both injured last season, the team’s ceiling dropped significantly. There was a glimmer of hope with Jared McCain looking impressive, but ultimately, he also suffered an injury. Since the 6ers owed their first-round pick to OKC if it fell below sixth, the team chose to tank hard last season. Ultimately, this strategy paid off, landing them the third pick in the draft to select VJ Edgecombe. Now, with a strong young backcourt consisting of Edgecombe, Maxey, and McCain, the team is counting on Embiid and George this year.
That might be too much to ask of Embiid these days, as he didn’t look healthy all year. Of course, he had extra time off this year and last season to recover, but he’s such a wild card to bet on. With him, this team could easily win 50 games, but if Andre Drummond plays most of the center minutes, I don’t see it happening. I think the 76ers will fall short again this year, despite their backcourt.
Boston is currently facing a tough situation. Not only did they lose Tatum for the year, but they also dismantled the championship team around him. So, without Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, or Holiday, Boston will look very different. However, the team isn’t hopeless, especially in the East. They’ll still have Brown, White, and Pritchard. The bench and post appear weak, but 41.5 wins might be a slight underestimation of this group.
Will they be strong defensively? Probably not. However, with half the East fielding rosters with less talent than Boston, it’s hard to see how they won’t at least reach a 500 record. Especially if Tatum’s recovery is quicker than expected, and we know a late-season burst from him even at 60% health, this team should win some games. This team might not be chasing championships this year, but the over is looking excellent with the line sitting at 41.5.
Memphis is still in a strange position. They have had a strong, young, competitive team for years now. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson are among the best players in the league. However, they just can’t stay healthy. With health concerns already emerging, this team may face difficulties early on. Additionally, they recently traded their third-best player, Desmond Bane, which means the squad will depend heavily on young, unproven talent to keep things going. Looking back at the past couple of years, it feels right to remain skeptical of this team.
Looking at the Western Conference, it’s hard to find many games where you’d be confident about Memphis winning. There are about 10 or 11 solid-to-great teams in the conference. If Memphis is at all dealing with injuries to Ja or Jackson, I don’t see them winning many games this year. Going with the under seems like the better choice here.
Dallas is one of the most boom-or-bust teams of the year. Landing the number one pick to select Cooper Flagg, they hit the jackpot after trading Luka. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than smart, and that’s the game the Mavericks’ front office is winning. As for the actual roster of the Mavericks, it’s compelling. With Flagg as a rookie, it’s impossible to know what he’ll bring, but if he can provide a solid foundation for this team, they could be competitive. Especially with AD and Flagg next to each other, with Lively potentially locking down the paint. The Mavericks could have one of the better defenses in the entire league, with a dangerous frontcourt. The backcourt is where this team starts to fall apart. They still have Klay Thompson holding down the two-guard spot, but Kyrie Irving is likely out most of the year, leaving the team in the hands of D'Angelo Russell.
Still, the raw talent on this team, with size, defensive tenacity, and a chip on their shoulder, should carry Dallas far. Even though they’ll probably finish in the playoff range, I think they’ll have a strong case to surpass the 40-win mark.
Oh Miami, how this team has fallen from grace recently. With Butler gone, they have completely lost their sense of identity. Now, with Bam and Herro leading the team, they aren’t winning much. However, 36.5 points feels a bit insulting for a team like Miami that tends to play better when the odds are against them. They’ve managed to find pieces off the scrap heap and turn them into highly effective players. Their off-season addition, Norm Powell, appears to be exactly that type of player.
After a career year in LA last season, the Clippers traded Powell to avoid paying him, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t valuable to the Heat. As a borderline all-star last season, Powell still has a lot left in the tank. In particular, his defensive abilities will help tremendously with this group. Placing Powell alongside a high-octane scorer like Herro should create a difference for the Heat on both ends of the court. I expect them to easily surpass 37 wins this season.
The Pacers' projected season total of 38.5 shows how important Haliburton is to the team. Since he tore his Achilles tendon in game seven of the finals, he likely won’t be close to playing this season. So, without him, the team might seem destined to struggle, right? I wouldn’t be so sure. The Pacers made it to the finals mainly because of their incredible depth. Now, they’ll be without Myles Turner and Haliburton, but their depth remains impressive. With Pascal Siakam leading the team, they should still be a solid threat in the East. T. J. McConnell will likely provide a steady veteran presence to help guide this young team alongside Siakam.
Considering the Eastern Conference is much weaker, with teams like Brooklyn, DC, and Charlotte all still struggling, there is a case to be made for the Pacers again this year. 39 wins in a weak conference with a roster still brimming with talent doesn’t sound like a tall order, even with Haliburton gone.
Toronto made some interesting moves this season and last. Trading for Brandon Ingram from the Pelicans marked the beginning of the transformation. Drafting Collin Murray-Boyles shows their roster game plan: enormous, versatile wings. Even with that, this group has a lot of questions surrounding it. We haven’t seen what the Ingram-Scottie Barnes combo will look like, or what RJ Barrett’s role will be. Even with all this talent, the team seems to lack ball handling and playmaking. Ingram and Barnes can handle some of that, but it will be up to Quickly to step into that role — something we haven’t seen yet.
There are just so many doubts and questions that we’ll need to see firsthand, but this team still feels decent. If the raw talent on paper is anything to go by, then this team should be respectable. Will they? I’d bet on it, but this is likely going to be one of the closer lines this year. Playing in the East, though, should give them enough cushion to make a couple of good runs, reaching 39 wins.
The Kings continue to find themselves in a down period. After bringing in DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine last year, the team struggled to find its footing. Now, they’re stuck with a squad that just doesn’t seem to click. They have the talent on paper to look decent, but in the West, I just don’t expect this team to surprise us. The Kings did win 40 games last year, but with teams like Portland, San Antonio, and New Orleans all vying for wins, it’s going to make the middle of the standings a risky place to be.
This group just doesn’t inspire confidence: a new head coach, a lineup we’ve already seen fall short, and only Nique Clifford joining the team through the draft. It’s hard to see this team excelling. The under is looking pretty safe this year.
This line is mysterious to me. It’s set at 2 wins below Portland's record last year, despite the roster arguably improving. They’re not aiming for a high playoff seed, but with a strong defensive identity, they’ll be a tough team. Adding Jrue Holiday might seem like a downgrade, but bringing veteran talent to a young team can lead to significant improvements. Just look at what Chris Paul did for SGA in OKC. I'm not saying we’ll see that level of impact, but players like Deni Avdija, Shaedon Sharpe, Scoot Henderson, and Toumani Camara could help elevate this team with Holiday. If Portland finds its rhythm and maintains top-tier defense, I believe they should easily surpass 35 wins.
The Bulls are in a strange situation, as usual. The team isn’t bad, especially since they managed to keep Josh Giddey and retained most of their roster through the offseason. Matas Buzelis, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, and Nikola Vučević should make for an interesting group. The biggest question for this team is what their plan is for the season. Are they aiming for wins, or will they start tanking by January? It’s hard to tell. They haven’t been in the business of intentionally tanking much in the past couple of years, but with a younger roster than ever, this could be the year.
I think this will be the year the team chooses a direction. Either go for wins, aim to make the playoffs, or tank early, build up the draft odds, and move some of the veteran players. I just don’t believe that’s what the ownership or front office wants. They’ve had that option available for a few years now, and it no longer seems appealing. So we’ll see, but with the state of the East and the look of this team, 33 wins seems doable.
If there is a team in the twilight zone this year, it’s the Phoenix Suns. After a failed Kevin Durant and Bradly Beal experiment, they’ve moved on to Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. That’s definitely a talent downgrade, but it could make the roster a little more interesting. Green provides another potent but inefficient scorer to play next to Booker, who regains his crown as the number one scoring option. Overall, this roster appears more competitive than last year's team. Adding two centers to the lineup, Mark Williams and Khaman Maluach, should help their defense with Brooks and Ryan Dunn.
This isn’t going to be a great team, though. The bench is thin, with limited rotation players, and both centers are inexperienced; the team simply isn’t as talented as the competition. That being said, the line being at 30.5 wins looks a bit too low. They did grab 36 wins last year despite injuries and no center rotation. They should be in that range again this year, especially if the post player is better than expected. Even in a competitive West, 31 wins seems very achievable.
The Pelicans struggle with having a successful season. After giving up on the initial Zion experiment with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans shifted their focus back to youth. They made significant moves during the draft, selecting Jeremiah Fears at 7 and then trading up to 13 to pick Derik Queen. The boldest move was trading their unprotected first-round pick for the 2026 draft to move up to 13. Now, with little reason for the team to tank, the Pelicans will need to fight hard for every win. However, their true success depends heavily on Zion. If he arrives healthy, in shape, and ready for the season, this might be the year everything clicks, but that’s a big if. We’ve seen Zion talk the talk before, but now we need to see him walk the walk. Still, this team is about more than just one player, and the roster is quite intriguing.
Trey Murphy is one of the most exciting wings in the league. More importantly, this is the first season planned around Murphy, not Ingram. Pair that with the team getting Dejounte Murray back and bringing in Jordan Poole for nothing, and you can see a path for this team. The center rotation might be a bit chaotic, with their only bigs being the sophomore Missi, rookie Queen, and Kevon Looney. Still, if the cards fall right, we get a healthy year of Zion, and the rookies can contribute, this team could look decent. Even if they’re not great, 31 wins seem achievable for a team with no incentives to lose.
Charlotte might be the most difficult team to understand. They seem built to stay stuck in mediocrity every season. Even when they begin to show signs of being a good team, injuries or other issues come up. There is talent on this team, though. LaMelo Ball has his flaws, but he can be a highlight scorer. Adding Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, and rookie Kon Knueppel makes a decent team with plenty of scoring and size. The post situation isn’t great with Moussa Diabet as their current starting center, backed up by Mason Plumlee and rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner. Given how important the center position has become in recent seasons, that will probably be their biggest weakness this year. Beyond that, this team should be able to keep up offensively with anyone.
It’s hard to believe a team that won 19 games last year will make a 6-game leap, but the Hornets can do it. They have the potential to become a feisty play-in team in the East. That’s why I’m leaning slightly toward their over this year. My only concern is that the front office may want another tanking year to aim for a top draft pick. However, I don’t think the players or fans would tolerate another disappointing season. So I expect a bit more from them this year, at the very least.
The Wizards have two very different paths they can take this year. Path one involves actually trying to win. This roster has some pieces that could help them compete. They added solid veteran talent in CJ McCollum and Khristian Middleton. While neither of those players are near their primes anymore, they could elevate this very young team and help them secure a few more wins. The second path would be pure development. This is the option I believe they’ll choose. With such a young core—Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, Cam Whitmore, and Alex Sarr—they might just focus on giving these players time on the court. Of course, if that’s the route they take, this team isn’t likely to win many games. That core of players would struggle to produce much offense, even if their defense holds up.
This just feels like another year of the Wizards tanking for a draft pick. They’ve been lusting after a number one pick to swing on a true difference maker. So I expect to see McCollum likely bought out later in the season, and letting this group of guys sink or swim together. So even with the number so low at 20.5, the under is looking more appealing for the Wiz.
Brooklyn had one of the strangest NBA drafts in history. Considering they took all five of their first-round picks this year, this is now one of the youngest teams in the league. It’s challenging to find a clear system or plan at the moment. This roster just looks like a hodgepodge of players, rolling the dice to see if any of them hit. This team isn’t built to win games. It’s more likely just an incubator, developing young talent and waiting for the next star to become available for a trade. With control of their 2026 first-round pick, they’re more focused on securing the best draft odds rather than winning games.
The wrinkle in all of this has been the Nets' track record over the past couple of seasons. They haven’t trotted out many solid lineups, but this team does find ways to win games. Cam Thomas can score at will, while Nic Claxton has been a dependable rim protector. They even added Michael Porter Jr. to the roster as a replacement for Cam Johnson. There are things to like about this team, and if any of the rookies hit, they could turn out to be interesting. I just don’t see it coming together 21 times this year. So, the under is probably the move on Brooklyn.
Now onto the Jazz. When you browse the roster, it’s not horrible. You’ve got Walker Kessler, a solid rim protector, Keyonte George, who took a leap last year, and of course, Lauri Markkanen. Plus, they added Walter Clayton Jr. and Ace Bailey in the draft. That list isn’t screaming playoffs by any means, but still, squirrelly at times. However, if there is one thing we’ve learned watching Utah lately, it's that they’re committed to tanking. Last year, they experienced some of the most notable strategic losses of the year, which helped them secure decent lottery odds. They may have missed out on the top of the lottery, but landing Bailey at the 5th pick does improve the roster. It just doesn’t feel like they’re done with the draft, though.
The real question mark surrounding another tank is Lauri Markkanen. This will be his third year in Utah. In his first year, the team won 31 games, but they only won 17 last year. As a key player on the court, it’ll be interesting to see if they sit him or let him compete. If he’s out there with the young guys, he could swing a few games. And with most of the trade rumors around Markkanen seeming flimsy, it doesn’t look like they want to move him either. But even with the Markkanen situation to consider, Utah appears to be the worst team in the West this year. In a conference where every win counts, I doubt we see the Jazz stealing many games this year, which will probably push them right into the 17 or 18 win range. I’d aim for the under on this one.