For the NBA Finals, there’s been little doubt in my mind about which team was the better squad. Oklahoma City has the league’s MVP, several up-and-coming young talents, and a defense that’s among the league’s best.
Bettors like me have discounted the Indiana Pacers at every turn, expecting this to be a five- or six-game series that the Thunder would quickly win. The first six games have proven the Thunder are not that much better than this hot Pacers team.
Now, the league’s next champion will be crowned on Sunday in a winner-take-all matchup. What can bettors expect from one of the most competitive NBA Finals we’ve witnessed in recent history? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our top three player prop bets below.
After giving up 33 or more points to Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in their first four matchups, Indiana finally shut him down during their Game 3 victory. Since then, he’s finished above his regular-season average only once.
SGA’s lack of production couldn’t have come at a worse time. Oklahoma City watched him put in 24 points on Thursday night, part of the reason the Pacers jumped out to such a large lead during Game 6.
The reigning MVP will reverse course on Sunday. Expect the 6-foot-6 guard to score at least 33 points in Game 7 to cover his player prop.
There was a question about how effective Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton would be after leaving Game 5 with an injury. Indiana cut his minutes in Game 6, primarily because the Pacers jumped out to such a commanding lead.
Still, he’s played more than 34 minutes in every game before Thursday. Bettors should expect him to see the court at least that long in Sunday’s series final, and he’ll cover his assist prop bet for only the third time against the Thunder.
After a quiet pair of home games, Thunder forward Jalen Williams came alive when the series shifted to Indiana. During the next three games, Williams scored at least 26 points – including his game-high 40-point outing in Game 5 – and grabbed six rebounds.
While Game 6 was a muted showing, there’s little doubt the Thunder will lean on him in this epic finale. Expect Williams to finish with at least 28 combined points and rebounds, covering this player prop bet.
As explained earlier, I’ve believed this series would have been finished by now. Oklahoma City has more talent throughout the roster, and the Thunder could have easily finished off the Pacers if not for Haliburton’s game-winner to open the series.
Oddsmakers believe the pressure of this winner-take-all game will drive down the scoring for both teams. I don’t see that happening. Instead, take these two teams to score at least 215 combined points as these teams have in their previous six outings.
While I still believe the Thunder will win and cover the spread, I can’t call that the best bet. Indiana has proven that their experience and heart can be overwhelming for the league’s best team on any given night, and Sunday’s finale could lead to the Pacers claiming their first title.