We’re heading into game five of the Western Conference Finals, and OKC stands just one game away from the NBA Finals! With the game back in OKC, they have an opportunity to grab a victory at home after an intense battle in Minnesota. The Wolves have truly given it their all, but with the series at 3-1, it really feels like we might be wrapping things up tonight. Let’s see if we’ll get a game six or if OKC is gearing up to face the winner from the East!
None
None
The Wolves needed game four, and despite some lackluster performances from their star players, they only fell to OKC by two points. However, that felt like the last grasp for this Timberwolves team. They have lost the swagger that got them into this position. Maybe OKC is simply the better team, but in game four, there was a noticeable lack of fight from the Stars. Notably, Anthony Edwards was far more passive than we’ve seen him. His shot wasn’t falling, and with five turnovers and only 16 points, this wasn’t the performance expected of him in such a close game. They’ll need more out of him if they want to have a chance in game five.
For the rest of this Timberwolves team, we’ve seen some heroic efforts emerge. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has proven himself not only as a solid NBA player but also as a great perimeter defender. He’s been key in some of these games in at least slowing down SGA. NAW and DiVincenzo were pretty much the only reasons the Wolves were competitive in game four, as the stars had all but given up. But if they can rally the troops again in this game five while getting more bench play like in game four, they’ll have a chance.
OKC, on the other hand, has been consistent. Their defense has been brutal, their shooting solid, and they’ve been getting to the line at will. Specifically, SGA has been averaging nearly 12 free throw attempts per game in this series. He’s been living at the line while getting nearly all of Minnesota’s top defenders into foul trouble. It would be nice to see him rely a little less on getting to the line, but if the refs are giving him the whistle, why stop? Honestly, his defense has been more impressive than his offense in this series, despite him averaging 30 points per game. He’s a menace on the defensive end, averaging three steals a game against the Wolves. Overall, this OKC roster isn’t as polished or buttoned-up as you’d expect, but they get it done. The depth of their bench and the switchability of their wings make it nearly impossible to find holes to attack on defense. They just suck all the oxygen out of the room and suffocate their opponents on both ends of the floor, which I expect them to continue doing tonight.
I have very little faith in this Wolves team to come back tonight. They’ve shown they can steal a game or two, but OKC is simply better. People can complain about the officiating, the free throw disparity, or the physicality, but I don’t think it changes the fact that OKC is the superior team. I expect them to roll through a defeated Wolves team at home and take the series tonight. That’s why I’m leaning towards the OKC moneyline, the over on the 220.5 points total, and the -8.5 OKC spread.
Money line: MIN (+270) / OKC (-340)
Total Points: 220.5
Spread: +8.5 MIN (-112) / -8.5 OKC (-108)
Randle has been hit-or-miss in this series regarding points. He’s had two games scoring well into the 20s and two where he didn’t even reach double digits. Given that this is an elimination game, I expect him to step up. With the line set at only 16.5, the over seems like the better option. Especially if his three-point shooting returns at all during this game, reaching 17 is well within his wheelhouse.
Reid entered this series shooting fairly well from deep, averaging at least two made threes per game in the last two rounds of the playoffs. However, OKC has been a different challenge, and during this series, Reid hasn’t found much success. He’s shot 17% from three during this series and has only made 2 threes in one game. The under is looking solid again today.
OKC can be a bit tricky for calling rebounds because the team rebounds so much. However, Williams has been the most consistent player in this series when it comes to snagging boards. That’s mainly because he’s been the most reliable in terms of playing time, aside from SGA. Holmgren and Hartenstein have both been matchup-dependent in this series, which has limited their minutes. With the line set at just 6 to hit the over, I think he’ll be able to achieve it.
We’ve seen a solid uptick in minutes for Wallace in this series. It’s mainly because most of these games have ended in blowouts, but he’s still averaging over 20 minutes a game. In the three games he’s played more than 20 minutes in this series, he’s hit this line. So, if the score gets out of hand in this one again, I think we’ll see a lot more of Wallace, which could give him the opportunity he needs to bank three assists.