Wow, was game one of this series one of the best playoff comebacks ever? The Pacers somehow pulled through in the fourth, sending it to overtime and closing out the game on the road. The Knicks played a solid game as well, but a late stretch by Aaron Nesmith made the miracle comeback possible. Now, we’re back at Madison Square Garden for game two, where the Knicks will have to bounce back to even up the series!
None
None
When you watch a playoff basketball game, it's exactly the type of match you’re hoping for—unless you’re a Knicks fan. We witnessed one of the greatest comebacks of all time. That’s not hyperbole, either; it was the first time a team has come back from a deficit like that in over 900 playoff games. It was a truly historic run, and to win in overtime was the icing on the cake that makes the whole thing unbelievable. Now, we’re heading into game two with a nervous Knicks team and a Pacers squad eager for more.
Despite the loss, the Knicks actually looked solid in that game. There was a reason they had a 17-point lead at one point. They were moving the ball well, attacked the paint, and won the rebounding battle— which is what you need to beat the Pacers. They just weren’t prepared for a 20-point fourth quarter from Nesmith, where he couldn’t miss a three. Everything fell apart for them down the stretch, which oddly gives me confidence in the Knicks tonight. They played their game, got the shots they wanted, played solid defense, and exploited weaknesses in Indiana. They would probably win this game 999 times out of 1000, but sometimes things happen.
For the Pacers, as stellar as the comeback was, it was aided by some of the most improbable shooting you’ll ever see. The game-tying shot bounced almost to the ceiling before dropping back in. The only shot that has been as suspenseful in recent memory is when Kawhi knocked out the 76ers in 2019. That shot looked out, but somehow, it floated back in. However, if that had been a three-pointer that iced the game, I might call this win a fluke, but the fact that the Pacers rallied to take overtime was impressive. The Knicks felt a bit shaky in overtime, but the Pacers executed well, mainly winning extra time with their defensive stops down the stretch. Of course, they matched every basket as the Knicks' defense faltered in the closing minutes. Overall, this game is an instant classic, but I’m far from declaring the series for the Pacers.
This matchup tonight is going to be revealing. The Pacers' shooting is where they can lean again tonight. They continue to shoot 50% from the field and 40% from three, something they’ve done all year. They’ve also been excellent at setting their own pace, which turns these games into foot races almost every time. However, the Knicks dominated in the paint against the Pacers, and that’s something I don’t see Indy having a solution for. The Knicks scored 62 points in the paint and another 28 from the free-throw line. That's 90 points of high-quality, repeatable offense. I don’t see that changing tonight, and if the Pacers can’t make up the difference with their three-point shooting, they could face challenges keeping up, like we saw in game one. For the Knicks, turnovers are one area where they can significantly improve. They had 15, but the Pacers managed to put up 27 points off the Knicks' turnovers. That’s an incredibly efficient number, highlighting how potent this Indiana offense is.
Overall, I’m still leaning towards the Knicks tonight. I don’t think we’ll see them drop both games at MSG with everyone healthy. They’ll hopefully make some adjustments to minimize turnovers, and if they can execute a similar game plan to game one, I think they’ll have no problem. So that’s why I’m going with the Knicks moneyline, the over on the 224 points total, and the Indy +6 spread.
Money line: IND (+195) / NYK (-238)
Total Points: 224.5
Spread: +6 IND (-110) / -6 NYK (-110)
After a performance like that, Nesmith's stock is through the roof. We saw him almost single-handedly pull the Pacers back and give Haliburton the chance to tie it up. Considering how he found his spots and beat his defender throughout the fourth, I think the over at 12.5 is tempting, especially since he ended with 30 points in the last game. He’s averaged 14 points per game throughout the entire playoffs so far.
Robinson continues to be an incredible asset off the bench for the Knicks. His ability to add size to the defense has been exceptional throughout the playoffs. In game one, though, he saw limited action. However, he still managed to grab 8 rebounds in only 21 minutes on the court. With the line set at 6.5, he’ll have an excellent chance of hitting the over tonight.
Surprisingly, OG hasn’t been racking up the defensive stats in the box scores during the playoffs. Especially in the Celtics series, his defensive stats were a bit lacking. Most of that stemmed from his defensive matchups and the Celtics often pulling him out of the paint. Against the Pacers, though, their wings love to drive into the paint, and OG managed to snag 6 STOCKS in game one. With plus money on the over at 2.5 STOCKS, this might be my favorite line of the evening.
When Mathurin hits the court, he has one goal: to jam the ball through the rim. His role as an off-the-bench sparkplug and pace-setter has become simple. He’s been solid in this role, but we have seen his minutes fluctuate a bit in the playoffs. Considering he hasn’t had an assist in the last four games, getting some plus money on that number going to five is tempting.