It’s finally here—the first game of the Western Conference Finals! After a nail-biting seven game series between OKC and Denver, the Thunder triumphed and secured their place in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. However, the Wolves are right back in it after getting knocked out late last year by Dallas in the WCF. Now we get to see two of the hungriest teams face off for their opportunity to go to the Finals!
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With this final series on the line, we’ve seen some excellent games from these two teams. After a tough series against the Nuggets, the Thunder have shown their resilience, but entering this series will not be easy. The Wolves have been waiting, having eliminated the Warriors in just five games, and they’re well-rested after dominating an injured Golden State team. They looked elite, with Julius Randle taking a significant leap alongside Anthony Edwards; Randle established himself as the true number two on the roster. Coupling that with Gobert locking down the paint, McDaniels' stifling defense, and Naz Reid's two-way game off the bench, they deserve to be here. Even though OKC had a better record during the regular season, that doesn’t matter anymore with the series tied at 0-0.
OKC is entering this game with a slight disadvantage. They do have home-court advantage but are coming off only a few days' rest after two extra games. The Nuggets were physical, and I doubt a single player on OKC isn’t still dealing with the bruises they sustained throughout that series. The Wolves present a completely different challenge than Denver. While they don’t have Jokic, they boast multiple players capable of dismantling the OKC defense if given the chance, something we didn’t see much from Denver. For OKC, the Denver series involved making the role players step up and limiting Jokic’s impact. It worked most of the time, but now, having to spread themselves thinner, we’ll see how they adapt. In particular, the scoring duo of Edwards and Randle will be challenging. They’ve excelled both inside and out. Each can drive, rebound, pass, and shoot threes, which has transformed the Timberwolves' offense.
OKC needs to identify their number two option on offense. They managed to get past the Grizzlies and Nuggets without anyone solidifying that role, but that could be the key factor in this series. Williams and Holmgren were expected to assist SGA in scoring, but neither made a consistent impact. If they isolate SGA again on offense, I doubt he can carry the team single-handedly. We did see several Thunder role players raise their games, with Dort hitting threes, Caruso effectively advancing the ball downhill, and Hartenstein attacking the rim; yet, none provided enough to truly take the number two spot behind SGA. We also saw just how vulnerable OKC was when faced with a zone defense. It will be interesting to see if the Wolves choose to use the same strategy.
The Wolves, on the other hand, have their own issues. Their shooting can be incredibly inconsistent. Especially if Edwards isn’t finding his shot, he tends to try to shoot himself out of slumps, which can stall the Wolves' offense. The biggest concern for the Wolves will be their defense. The Thunder can present various looks and move the ball quickly on offense. A significant part of this game will hinge on how McDaniels holds up against SGA on defense. Additionally, Gobert will find himself in an intriguing position. He was invaluable against the Lakers, who lacked size, but didn’t have the same effect against Golden State. However, with Hartenstein and Holmgren in the mix, they’ll need Gobert to be efficient.
This matchup is set to be compelling, as both teams have solid counters for each other's strengths. However, I’m leaning toward the Wolves in game one. They have the personnel to challenge OKC on both ends of the court and the stars to compete with SGA. Randle will be the wild card in this equation. If he maintains this level of play, Minnesota might have the upper hand, but we’ve seen Randle disappear in the playoffs as well. One thing is certain: I expect this to be an extremely physical game.
Money line: MIN (+245) / OKC (-305)
Total Points: 217
Spread: +7.5 MIN (-110) / -7.5 OKC (-110)
Randle was excellent as the second scoring option in the first series. Now taking on the best defense they’ve seen all postseason, they’ll need all the scoring he can provide. He’ll matchup well against Holmgren, who will likely be guarding him. He’ll give up some size, but Randle has the strength to bully Chet and pull him out of the paint. Overall, Randle is one of the most challenging matchups for OKC in this one, and I think he’ll exploit it.
Naz could play a massive role in this game. He’s been a sparkplug scorer off the bench throughout the playoffs, but he hasn’t maintained his consistency. He’s averaging just under 11 points per game in the postseason, and he’ll have a solid size advantage over the OKC bench. If he can leverage his size down low and make at least one three-pointer, he’ll be in great position to reach 11.
Hartenstein is expected to see significant playing time with Rudy Gobert lined up against him. He was impressive in the Denver series, slowing down Jokic, and now they’ll rely on his size again to limit Gobert's effectiveness around the rim. I believe we’ll see him on the court for at least 30 minutes tonight, which should provide him with enough opportunity to grab at least 9 boards.
SGA has been supporting this Thunder offense throughout the postseason, but his assist numbers have fluctuated a bit. He’s only had 5 games out of his total of 11 playoff games where he recorded 7 assists or more. It’s not really because his passing hasn’t been effective; rather, it’s that his teammates have been inconsistent shooters, which I expect to persist. Especially after facing a tough series against the Nuggets, we might see some fatigue start to set in.