Returning to Madison Square Garden for game six, the Celtics have shown that they’re far from finished with a fantastic performance in game five! They are currently trailing in the series 3-2, and tonight's matchup is another elimination game. Can the Celtics push this series to a game seven, or will the Knicks make their long-awaited return to the Eastern Conference Finals to face the waiting Pacers?
Jayson Tatum Out
Precious Achiuwa Questionable
Well, the Celtics were able to pull through, not just winning Game 5, but dominating the Knicks down the stretch. We saw multiple players from Boston step up, none more than Derrick White. He was unstoppable shooting in Game 5, finishing with an impressive 34 points. However, we weren’t the only ones to rise to the occasion; Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser came up huge, filling in some of the Tatum minutes. Off the bench, they were key to Boston’s fourth-quarter run. The real question now is, is this sustainable? Can Boston expect this level of performance from this group, and will it be enough to take this series to seven?
There isn’t a lot telling us that they can’t. We’ve seen Boston shoot lights out all season, with players like White and Pritchard putting in insane efforts. Brown will be the real question mark in this game. He's been this guy before, working as the do-it-all guy on both ends, but he hasn’t reached that status this year. In general, Brown has been a bit slow compared to the Finals MVP version of last year. That wasn’t the case on Wednesday, so now all eyes will be on him to lead the Celtics in MSG tonight.
So what does Boston need to do to stay competitive in this game? There is always one simple answer for Boston: shoot well from three. They shot 45% from three on 49 attempts in game five, which helped. They were electric as the ball flowed around the court and found the hot hand. However, their ability to attack the rim was key as well; it led to both Brunson and Towns getting into foul trouble, which ultimately decided the game. As long as Boston is shooting well and getting to the line, there isn’t much stopping them from staying in this game.
For the Knicks, Game 5 was a collapse. They kept it tight for most of the game, but when Brunson picked up five fouls in nine minutes, which fouled him out, they were dead in the water. Things weren’t looking great before that, either. OG has become a liability on offense, shooting 1-12 from the field. His defense has been solid, but they’re going to need more from him offensively. The same goes for Mikal Bridges, who shot 4-14 from the field; they need one of those two to knock down some shots if they want to prevent Game 7. Josh Hart was about the only starter who had his jumper going, but I don’t expect that to be the case in Game 6. With the game back at MSG, this might be one of the loudest arenas in the entire playoffs. This starved Knicks fanbase is desperate to see this team win, and the team knows it. I expect Brunson to come out and take command of this game. He’s going to challenge Boston’s defense all game and probably live at the free-throw line. Given the state of Boston right now, the Knicks have the talent to finish this series off. As long as they can do a better job contesting White on the arc, I don’t think the Celtics will have enough offense to overwhelm the Knicks again.
Overall, I think the series ends tonight. With the Knicks on home court, I see the momentum of this game being firmly in New York's hands from tip-off. As long as Brunson and Towns can avoid early foul trouble, they should be able to maintain significant scoring pressure on Boston. That’s why I’m taking the Knicks moneyline, over on the 211.5 points total, and the Knicks spread.
Money line: BOS (+120) / NYK (-142)
Total Points: 211.5
Spread: +2.5 BOS (-108) / -2.5 NYK (-112)
White is the player who stepped up in Tatum's absence. Now, heading back to New York, they will need every ounce of scoring ability he possesses to push this to a game seven. Given the number of shots White took alone in game five, 21 points seems very achievable. He attempted 16 shots, 13 of which were from three-point range; considering how he has shot throughout the series, this stands out as one of my favorite lines for the game.
Robinson has been a beast off the bench for the Knicks. He’s been causing real headaches for Boston on both ends of the court. His rebounding ability has really been what keeps earning him minutes. He’s only had one game where he finished with fewer than eight rebounds. Also, looking at how foul-prone Towns is means Robinson's minutes have been increasing as they try to protect Towns. Getting plus odds on this seems fantastic when you consider what Robinson has done this series.
Brown was fantastic in game five, moving the ball effectively. He kept the offense fluid while setting up teammates with good looks. With Tatum absent, he has taken on much of the playmaking duties for this group, and in game five, he recorded 12 assists. While that game is an outlier, the line is only set at 7 for the over; Brown seems more than capable of hitting it. Especially with plus odds, this is one of the best prop lines of the game.
OG has faced a tough time offensively in this series. After putting together one of his best post-game performances of his career in game one, it seems like nothing is quite working for the big guy right now. On the bright side, OG is still making a significant impact defensively. However, his defensive responsibilities have sometimes pulled him out of position for collecting defensive stats. They’ve utilized him as a point-of-attack defender. Looking at the rest of this series, OG has only recorded two STOCKS in one game. I doubt we'll see him change that tonight.