Cleveland and Portland square off for the last time this season as the Cavaliers make their way to the Pacific Northwest. These teams last met in early March, which resulted in one of the most exciting games we’ve seen. Ending in OT after an epic Cavs comeback, this game should be electric even without Donovan Mitchell.
Dalano Banton Questionable
Jerami Grant Doubtful
DeAndre Ayton Out
Robert Williams III Out
Jaylon Tyson Out
Donovan Mitchell Out
Emoni Bates Out
The headlines about the Cavs have finally turned negative. After going all season looking unbeatable, this group has slipped. They’ve lost four of their last five games and are struggling to close out this season. However, this doesn’t matter to the team’s standing. They’ve already locked up the number one seed in the East, so they’re very likely taking it easy going into the home stretch of the season.
We won’t see Donovan Mitchell tonight, nor would it be surprising to see other names like Mobley, Simons, or Avdija listed as late scratches to this game. As Portland’s dream of making the play-in begins to fade, the urgency of winning tonight feels less pressing, while Cleveland holds a steady position in the playoffs. This might be a game both teams plan on punting, which is excellent value for bettors. These late-season games can be tricky to call, but getting ahead of the tanking moves opens up the opportunity to snag some favorable lines.
Even though this game may not matter to Portland, they’re a sneaky good matchup against Cleveland. They can compete on the wings and have some size at the guard to challenge Garland. Obviously, the Cavs are the much more talented team, but when Portland is hitting their shots, it can be hard to stop this fast-paced offense. Cleveland saw exactly how changing it can be when they were down almost 20 points last game. They managed to come back with some incredible heroics from De’Andre Hunter, but Portland could be even more dangerous at home this time.
We’ll have to see the Cavaliers come out tonight as the more professional team. They’ll have to keep the crowd out of it, and play patient, efficient basketball. Beating Portland downlow is the best option. Portland tends to jump on defense, leaving plenty of backdoor opportunities to land high percentage shots. Attacking Clingan will be key; he may have size, but the athleticism of the Cavaliers’ front court could be a challenging matchup. Especially in the minutes Mobley is playing center, spreading the floor and pulling Clingan out of the paint will be vital.
For Portland, they’ll need to stay aggressive like last time. They managed to live at the free-throw line in their last game against Cleveland, which kept the game close. If they’re able to get downhill again on Cleveland, get to the line, and shoot the three ball better down the stretch, they’ll have a great opportunity to keep it close. Considering how strong guys like Camara and Avdija have been playing, the transition offense on this team has been a key factor in their success.
Overall, the Cavs are the better team. They have the talent, size, and skill to beat Portland. As long as Cleveland doesn’t settle for challenging jump shots or a million threes, they should be able to beat Portland. Even with -250 odds, and no Mitchell, they’re the less fun bet but probably the right one.
Money line: CLE (-250) / POR (+205)
Total Points: 230
Spread: -6.5 CLE (-115) / +6.5 POR (-105)
Cleveland is still an elite team despite their losing streak. The losing streak has also seen some standout performances from their opponents. Their opponents shot around 45% from three in all but one of their recent losses. Maybe that’s a defensive issue, but looking at it, it seems a little fluky. Unless Portland can match that energy and hit their threes at nearly a 10% higher rate than their season average, the Cavs should be able to take the game tonight.
This line will primarily depend on Portland’s scoring ability. They’ve had some stretches where they struggle to get above 105, but tonight they should be fine. In their last game against the Cavs, they managed to hit 232 before OT, with neither team shooting well. Especially if we see a ton of free throws again, the over line looks excellent.
Portland almost stole the last game in Cleveland and narrowly lost it in OT. Tonight should be close unless we have some late scratches to help Portland tank, even then, the young guys might be able to keep this game close.
No Mitchell will likely mean Mobley will have to pick up the offensive workload. This Cavs team is deep with talent, and Garland could easily up his scoring, but Cleveland's best matchup will likely be through Mobley. His size advantage over Avdija will give him plenty of open shots and opportunities at the rim.
Camara may be one of the sneakiest, most improved players this year. We’ve not only seen his defensive skill and intensity skyrocket, but his shooting has become rock solid. He’s turned himself into the ideal three-and-D wing everyone in the league wants. Considering he’s shooting 40% from three in March and 46% in February, hitting two threes is well within his wheelhouse tonight.
Clingan has been a rebounding monster post all-star break. He’s been getting almost all the center minutes with Ayton and Williams out, so expect Clingan to play around 30 minutes tonight. Especially considering the size of the Cavs with Mobley and Allen, Clingan will likely be on the court a ton, which normally results in him cleaning up on the rebounds.
Even with Mitchell out tonight, the under on Garland is looking good. He’s only scored over 23 points once in the month of March, with his last game against Portland ending with him having 13 points. Garland may be asked to up his shot attempts with Mitchell gone, but considering the number of offensive weapons on this roster, his primary role will likely continue to be playmaker.