This will be a battle between two teams at polar opposite ends of the playoff spectrum. The Bucks are aiming for a home-court seed, while the Suns are trying to make it into the playoffs through the play-in. This game should be competitive despite Lillard being out tonight.
Mason Plumlee Probable
Nick Richards Probable
Bradley Beal Out
Gary Trent Jr Probable
Giannis Antetokounmpo Probable
Damian Lillard Out
Jericho Sims Out
It’s a bit surprising to see Milwaukee as the underdo, but taking a closer look at the numbers sheds some light on the situation. They’re heading into their fourth consecutive road game, and without Lillard, the team is feeling a bit down. They did pick up a couple of big wins over the Lakers and Kings lately, but the Suns could be a challenge. With Devin Booker and Durant playing some solid basketball, they’re on a 3 game-win streak. That might not sound like a lot, but for Pheonix, it’s a breath of fresh air compared to the rest of the season.
Tonight could add to that winning streak. The Suns have thrived in their home games, boasting a 22-13 record, with two-thirds of their total victories this year coming at home. In contrast, the Bucks haven’t been particularly effective as a road team either, sitting just below .500 at 16-18 on the road. Especially without Lillard, this game will largely fall on Giannis's shoulders, but I believe he can handle it.
However, the Suns don’t have anyone who can effectively match up against Giannis. He’ll likely have a free trip to the rim almost every drive due to how weak the Suns’ frontcourt defense is. Even with Plumlee and Richards playing tonight, Giannis will be able to out-muscle them all night long. The challenge for the Bucks will likely come on the other end. Given how effective the Suns can be at scoring with Booker and Durant, they could turn this game into a rock fight. The Suns' best chance tonight is to maintain high scoring pressure, which means they’ll need to hit their three-pointers. If they can shoot at a 39% rate tonight, it could be too much for Milwaukee to handle.
Overall, this is a game that Milwaukee should win. If they can attack the paint and get the ball inside, they should be able to keep pace even if the Suns are shooting well. Giannis’ dominance will likely be too overwhelming, and given the size on Milwaukee’s roster, it will be difficult for the Suns to compete.
Money line: MIL (+124) / PHO (-148)
Total Points: 223
Spread: +3 MIL (-112) / -3 PHO (-108)
Giannis is the key to winning this game. If he can get into the paint and make shots at a high level, there isn’t much the Suns can do. With their size and physicality on defense, the Suns will likely have to rely on jump shots all game. Unless the threes are falling at an insane rate for Phoenix, the Bucks have all the tools they need to steal this game on the road.
The Bucks haven’t been posting high scoring numbers lately. They’ve been more in the 112-points-per-game range. However, that’s only part of the picture, as they’ve been limiting their opponents to around 100 points per game. It’s the Milwaukee defense that will keep this game under 223 tonight.
It feels good getting a couple of points on the spread for Milwaukee. At the very least, I expect the Bucks to keep the score down, so they’ll likely be able to keep it close. Even if they can’t win it, a three-point margin isn’t crazy. I’d still pick the money line over this spread, but it’s not the worst spread tonight.
This is a matchup that Giannis can feast in. The Suns don’t have a defender they can meaningfully throw at Giannis tonight. They may try to pack the paint on him, especially with no Lillard, but I don’t think it will matter. I expect to see Giannis dominate this matchup all night.
Booker has been on fire. He looks like his old self, and his three-pointer is finally hitting its target. Averaging 2.5 made threes per game in March, tonight should offer plenty of opportunities for Booker. Given Milwaukee's size, the Suns will likely be pushed to the perimeter a fair amount. Booker will have a lot of attempts tonight; it’s just a matter of whether he makes them or not.
Durant’s rebounding numbers seem to fluctuate a fair amount, but tonight, his rebounding will be critical. With Milwaukee's size advantage, the Suns will need Durant’s length to help keep the defensive boards clean. Averaging 6.6 boards a game in March anyway, this line is looking solid tonight.
Without Dame, Porter Jr should see an increase in minutes tonight. Averaging nearly 11 points per game this month, this line should be close. If Porter receives a workload similar to what he had against Sacramento on Saturday, he should easily hit this line.