The Magic are traveling down the coast to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans. With both teams struggling this game means a lot more to Orlando. The Magic are close to falling into the back half of the play-in as they dangle in 8th. For the Pelicans, this season is already over, but with Zion playing, this team still has some fight left in them. This should be a great matchup.
Jalen Suggs Out for the Season
Mortiz Wagner Out for the Season
Yves Missi Questionable
Kelly Olynyk Out
Brandon Boston Out
Herbert Jones Out for the Season
Dejounte Murray Out for the Season
Orlando has crashed hard this year. Even with Paolo and Franz on the court together, this team can’t score at all. They are 4th to last in field goal percentage and dead last in three-point percentage in the NBA. With Suggs out for the season, they’re entire game plan flew out the window. Now they’re just limping to the finish line.
The Pelicans have been a similar story. Their fortunes turned almost instantly, though. Injuries have kept this team behind all year. However, despite several key players still being out, mainly Dejounte Murray and Herb Jones, this group is still dangerous. Zion has come back into form and is looking excellent. He even had a triple-double in his last game against the Clippers. Going against the Magic looks like a good match for the Pelicans.
For the Pelicans to have a chance in this game, they’ll need to hit their shots. They've been hit-or-miss shooting this season, but when Murphy and CJ are hitting, it impacts their ability to win tremendously.
For the Magic, they’ll need to attack the rim. The Pelicans are extremely thin at the center position, and their interior lacks size in general. This could lead to Paolo having a ton of opportunities inside. The Magic will need that type of offensive push as the Pelicans can match up well on the perimeter with them. Franz will also have the ability to attack the rim, but considering he’ll most likely have Murphy on him, he might be playing second fiddle tonight.
Overall, this game is going to turn into a foot race between the Orlando defense and Pelican offense. However, the Pels look like they have a slight advantage tonight. If they can get downhill, and Zion is looking good, they’ll be able to outscore Orlando. Unless Orlando gets a big push from one of their role players, I don’t see Franz and Paolo out-scoring this Pelicans group.
Money line: ORL (-142) / NOP (+120)
Total Points: 216
Spread: -2.5 ORL (-112) / +2.5 NOP (-108)
The Pelicans have a solid advantage in this game, coming off a win against the Clippers. They should have the scoring ability to outpace the Magic. With how weak the Magic have been offensively, the combo of Zion, Murphy, and McCollum will likely be too much for them to keep up. Unless Orlando has a standout shooting day, the Pelicans will probably take this one.
Betting the under on Orlando for points total has been the winning move for a while. However, going against the Pelicans with such a limited defense and post presence, the Magic will likely do better offensively. If Paolo or Franz can get into the paint, they should be able to get to the rim and convert some high-percentage shots. If the Pelicans keep up their scoring efficiency, 216 is within reason for these teams.
For the Pelicans, this spread doesn’t have a ton of value. I’d stay away from the Pelicans spread tonight and run with the money line instead.
The Magic suck at scoring outside of Paolo. He’s been their only consistent source of points, and he delivers most nights. Going against the Pelicans should make for an easy night. With Olynyk out and Missi questionable, the Pelicans will lack size. If Paolo can get to his spots in the post and attack the rim tonight, he’ll likely feast against this undersized Pelicans lineup.
Murphy has turned into one of the most important players on the Pelicans. As their third scoring option most nights, he sees plenty of shot attempts go his way. Averaging 7.8 three-point attempts in March, he’s struggled to make them this month. However, going against a strong defense like Orlando will likely force the Pelicans to operate on the perimeter more, giving Murphy an excellent chance to knock down some threes.
Zion isn’t generally mentioned for his passing ability, but he’s been solid lately. Landing himself a triple-double against the Clippers on Tuesday, he’s averaged 6.6 assists in March. He’s hit 6+ assists in half of his games this month, with another handful in February. Going against the Magic might make his passing lanes more challenging, but if the Pelicans shooters are hitting Zion has a great chance to rack up 6 assists.
This line is a tad too high for Franz. His scoring has taken a slight slump over the last couple of games, and with it, his combined numbers have tanked. He has only barely crested over 34 combined PRA a few times in the last couple of weeks. Going against a weaker Pelicans team could help, but the under feels solid today.