The Cavs will face the Rockets at 8:00 PM ET in freezing Houston, Texas. This will be a battle between two of the most fun teams from the top of both conferences. The best part is that we’ll bet to see a rematch of this game on Saturday, the 25th, in Cleveland as these teams start their home and away series!
Isaac Okoro Out
Caris LeVert Questionable
Evan Mobley Out
Jabair Smith Jr Out
Normally, this would be a reasonably clean-cut game. The Cavs have been dominant all year, but without Mobley, it opens the door for Houston tonight.
Houston has relied heavily on offensive rebounds and second-chance points to prop up its offense. Despite being in the bottom five in both field-goal and three-point percentages, they lead the league in shot attempts, allowing them to use their hustle plays to create offense.
Now, Cleveland isn’t the type of team that gets out-hustled easily, but Houston might be a problem. The Rockets have a ton of size on this team and great athletes. We’ll have to see a massive game out of Allen to keep the paint secure, so expect to see Allen's rebounding number balloon tonight.
If Cleveland can attack the weaker defensive backcourt tonight, they should be able to keep up in scoring. Mitchell will have to battle through Amen tonight, so I would expect most of the scoring to come from Garland. With VanVleet and Green guarding Garland, he'll likely get whatever he wants from the perimeter.
Overall, this matchup will be close, but Cleveland has been dominant for a reason. I don’t expect them to crumble just because they’re missing Mobley. Allen should be enough tonight to keep the frontcourt stable and prevent Houston from out-hustling Cleveland.
Money line: HOU (+124) / CLE (-148)
Total Points: 229.5
Spread: +2.5 HOU (-110) / -2.5 CLE (-110)
Cleveland is my pick to win it tonight. They have one of the best teams out there, with a fantastic record for a reason. Even without Mobley, they can prevent this young team from getting cheap points against them. Unless Houston hits their three at a high rate tonight, I think Cleveland edges them out.
Cleveland is second in points per game, while Houston is sixth. Both teams can score at a high level, but Cleveland is missing one of its bigs. This should allow Houston to score more, while Mitchell and Garland can attack Houston's backcourt. This should be a high-scoring game, no matter who wins it.
I’d stick with the Cleveland spread tonight. It’s not exceptional, but it’s a slightly better value than the money line. If you’re looking at the Houston spread, I’d just go with the money line instead and take the plus money. A 2.5 spread is nothing in the NBA, so I wouldn’t reply hitting anything that close.
Donovan Mitchell under 25.5 Points (-125)
Mitchell may struggle tonight with Thompson on him. His size, athleticism, and defensive IQ will likely force the ball away from Donovan on offense. Unless he’s hitting from three at a higher rate than usual, I expect most of the scoring to come from Garland tonight.
Jarrett Allen 12+ Rebounds (+115)
With Mobley out and Houston shooting so poorly, there will be a ton of available rebounds! Allen has already had some massive rebounding totals this year! Taking the alternate rebounding number feels right here. If you feel extra risky, you can bump it to 14+ for an extra +100 on your wager.
Darius Garland Under 6.5 Assists (+100)
Garland will likely have to be more of a scorer than a passer tonight. Especially with one of his favorite targets, Mobley, out tonight, he might not rack up the assist. Don’t be surprised if he ups his shot attempts tonight at the expense of his assist numbers.
Alperen Sengun 2+ Steals (+205)
Sengun has become one of the best at stealing the ball on Houston. He averaged 1.3 steals a game and has logged several games with three or more. Hitting the two-steal mark shouldn’t be a challenge, especially with Brooks, Thompson, and Eason creating issues on defense as well.